Opens in a new tab
needsahuman.
Search ⌘KGet the data

Will AI replace school teachers?

13 jobs scored. On average 68% of the task time in these jobs still needs a person, and the family averages 75 out of 100 on Still needs a human, where higher is safer.

75
Average Still needs a human score, 0 to 100 ↑ safer. Will AI replace them? A little.
13
Jobs scored in this family
68%
Average share of that still needs a person
4.6M
US workers in these jobs

How the work could shift in School Teachers

The share of US workers in these jobs whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.

Today
10%
of US workers in this family are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
1%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
80% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
1%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
99% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)

Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works

Share of US workers in this family in each verdict band, today to 20600%25%50%75%100%2026: 10.3% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)10%2026: 89.7% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)90%Today2030: 1.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2030: 56.7% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)57%2030: 42.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)42%20302035: 1.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2035: 9.6% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)10%2035: 28.8% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)29%2035: 30.8% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)31%2035: 29.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)30%20352040: 1.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2040: 0.1% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2040: 10.5% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)11%2040: 27.8% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)28%2040: 60.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)61%20402045: 1.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2045: 0.1% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2045: 1.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)2045: 17.2% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)17%2045: 80.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)80%20452050: 1.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2050: 0.1% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2050: 4.1% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)2050: 94.8% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)95%20502055: 1.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2055: 0.1% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2055: 0.2% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)2055: 98.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)99%20552060: 1.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2060: 0.1% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2060: 98.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)99%2060
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Share of US workers in this family whose job would sit in each band, year by year. Updated with every release.
Show the data
YearLargelyMostlyPartlyA littleNah
Today (2026)0.0%0.0%0.0%89.7%10.3%
20300.0%0.0%42.3%56.7%1.0%
203529.7%30.8%28.8%9.6%1.0%
204060.6%27.8%10.5%0.1%1.0%
204580.3%17.2%1.3%0.1%1.0%
205094.8%4.1%0.0%0.1%1.0%
205598.7%0.2%0.0%0.1%1.0%
206098.9%0.0%0.0%0.1%1.0%

Every job in School Teachers, ranked

How to read a row: the number is the Still needs a human score, out of 100, higher is safer; “AI replace?” is our answer to “Will AI replace this job?”; the bar is the task split: white AI does it, grey AI helps, amber needs a human.

Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical EducationEducational Instruction and Library · 25-2022
71↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 9%AI helps 37%Needs a human 54%
20382034–2049
620k
$64,370
Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical EducationEducational Instruction and Library · 25-2031
72↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 8%AI helps 38%Needs a human 54%
20382035–2049
1.1M
$72,040
Career/Technical Education Teachers, Middle SchoolEducational Instruction and Library · 25-2023
73↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 7%AI helps 30%Needs a human 63%
20402035–2053
17k
$65,030
Special Education Teachers, Middle SchoolEducational Instruction and Library · 25-2057
73↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 6%AI helps 29%Needs a human 65%
20392035–2051
95k
$66,810
Elementary School Teachers, Except Special EducationEducational Instruction and Library · 25-2021
75↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 6%AI helps 31%Needs a human 63%
20392035–2052
1.4M
$63,970
Special Education Teachers, Secondary SchoolEducational Instruction and Library · 25-2058
75↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 5%AI helps 30%Needs a human 65%
20392035–2051
164k
$74,260
Career/Technical Education Teachers, Secondary SchoolEducational Instruction and Library · 25-2032
75↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 31%Needs a human 69%
20402035–2054
111k
$66,270
Special Education Teachers, KindergartenEducational Instruction and Library · 25-2055
76↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 8%AI helps 19%Needs a human 73%
20412035–2056
261k
$65,120
Adapted Physical Education SpecialistsEducational Instruction and Library · 25-2059.01
76↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 35%Needs a human 65%
20422036–2058
34k
$76,580
Special Education Teachers, Elementary SchoolEducational Instruction and Library · 25-2056
76↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 8%AI helps 24%Needs a human 68%
20402035–2054
261k
$65,120
Special Education Teachers, PreschoolEducational Instruction and Library · 25-2051
78↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 5%AI helps 18%Needs a human 77%
20432036–2060+
30k
$64,830
Kindergarten Teachers, Except Special EducationEducational Instruction and Library · 25-2012
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 15%Needs a human 85%
20422035–2060
109k
$62,680
Preschool Teachers, Except Special EducationEducational Instruction and Library · 25-2011
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 17%Needs a human 83%
20442036–2060+
479k
$38,140