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Recession-proof jobs: what held up in the 2020 downturn, and what still needs a human

Jobs that held up through the 2020 downturn and still need a human most.

No job is fully recession-proof. This list of recession-proof jobs starts from what actually happened: the change in each job’s employment from May 2019 to May 2020, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, combined equally with how much the job still needs a human. The 2020 figures capture only the first months of the pandemic downturn.

#JobStill needs a humanEvidenceCould be largely automatedResilience scoreEmployment change, 2019–20Median pay
1Slaughterers and Meat PackersProduction87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2046–2060+96+6.3%$40,130
2Tree Trimmers and PrunersBuilding and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2046–2060+95+10.2%$50,960
3Agricultural Equipment OperatorsFarming, Fishing, and Forestry86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2046–2060+94+8.3%$41,730
4Industrial Truck and Tractor OperatorsTransportation and Material Moving88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2044–2060+93+1.9%$46,420
5Fence ErectorsConstruction and Extraction86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2047–2060+93+4.3%$47,980
6Locomotive EngineersTransportation and Material Moving85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2044–2060+90+4.5%$81,410
7Psychiatric TechniciansHealthcare Practitioners and Technical83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2042–2060+88+8.7%$45,130
8Electrical Power-Line Installers and RepairersInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2045–2060+88+2.9%$95,320
9Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Processing Machine OperatorsOffice and Administrative Support85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2037–2060+87+2.9%$58,470
10Ophthalmic Medical TechniciansHealthcare Practitioners and Technical85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2042–2060+87+2.3%$45,570
11Machine Feeders and OffbearersTransportation and Material Moving85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2044–2060+87+1.5%$41,220
12Cooks, Fast FoodFood Preparation and Serving Related83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2044–2060+85+3.3%$30,890
13Cement Masons and Concrete FinishersConstruction and Extraction88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2048–2060+85−0.3%$57,020
14Highway Maintenance WorkersConstruction and Extraction88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2048–2060+84−0.6%$50,260
15Butchers and Meat CuttersProduction82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2046–2060+83+4.0%$40,140
16Medical Equipment PreparersHealthcare Support86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2046–2060+83−0.1%$47,700
17Semiconductor Processing TechniciansProduction80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2046–2060+83+12.3%$51,430
18Rolling Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2046–2060+83+6.3%$50,140
19Telecommunications Line Installers and RepairersInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2045–2060+82+1.3%$74,330
20Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and TendersProduction86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2046–2060+82−0.4%$50,270
21Postal Service ClerksOffice and Administrative Support80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2037–2060+82+7.1%$62,130
22Farmworkers, Farm, Ranch, and Aquacultural AnimalsFarming, Fishing, and Forestry84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2046–2060+81+0.5%$36,670
23RoofersConstruction and Extraction86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2048–2060+81−0.8%$55,440
24GlaziersConstruction and Extraction86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2048–2060+81−0.4%$57,080
25Chemical Equipment Operators and TendersProduction79↑ saferAI replace? A little.D2046–2060+80+6.8%$58,040
26Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment OperatorsConstruction and Extraction85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2048–2060+79−0.7%$59,850
27Veterinary Assistants and Laboratory Animal CaretakersHealthcare Support81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2045–2060+79+1.8%$38,150
28Crossing Guards and FlaggersProtective Service83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2042–2060+79+0.2%$38,100
29Hazardous Materials Removal WorkersConstruction and Extraction85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2048–2060+79−0.5%$49,450
30Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment OperatorsConstruction and Extraction88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2048–2060+79−2.6%$53,340
31Chemical Plant and System OperatorsProduction81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2046–2060+79+3.0%$78,120
32Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and InstallersInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2045–2060+78+0.6%$61,010
33First-Line Supervisors of Correctional OfficersProtective Service77↑ saferAI replace? A little.D2042–2060+78+15.1%$77,970
34Insulation Workers, Floor, Ceiling, and WallConstruction and Extraction87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2048–2060+78−2.3%$49,120
35Septic Tank Servicers and Sewer Pipe CleanersConstruction and Extraction83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2048–2060+78+0.4%$49,880
36Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except EnginesInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2045–2060+77−0.1%$65,510
37PhlebotomistsHealthcare Support83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2045–2060+77−0.2%$45,230
38Surgical TechnologistsHealthcare Practitioners and Technical85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2042–2060+77−1.5%$64,650
39Diagnostic Medical SonographersHealthcare Practitioners and Technical81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2042–2060+77+1.6%$96,590
40Stockers and Order FillersTransportation and Material Moving79↑ saferAI replace? A little.D2044–2060+76+3.5%$37,330
41Refuse and Recyclable Material CollectorsTransportation and Material Moving83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2044–2060+76−0.4%$49,690
42Insulation Workers, MechanicalConstruction and Extraction79↑ saferAI replace? A little.D2047–2060+76+3.9%$58,340
43Physician AssistantsHealthcare Practitioners and Technical78↑ saferAI replace? A little.D2042–2060+75+4.3%$135,880
44Construction and Building InspectorsConstruction and Extraction79↑ saferAI replace? A little.D2047–2060+75+3.0%$74,690
45Medical Equipment RepairersInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair77↑ saferAI replace? A little.D2045–2060+75+4.6%$61,660
46Brickmasons and BlockmasonsConstruction and Extraction85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2047–2060+75−1.2%$62,120
47Light Truck DriversTransportation and Material Moving80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2044–2060+74+0.7%$44,860
48Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and GreenhouseFarming, Fishing, and Forestry83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2046–2060+74−0.5%$35,660
49Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and BrazersProduction87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2046–2060+74−3.2%$53,750
50Respiratory TherapistsHealthcare Practitioners and Technical82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.D2042–2060+74−0.2%$82,280

How this list is built

  • The resilience score averages two equal parts, each a 0 to 100 position among comparable jobs: the change in the job’s employment from May 2019 to May 2020 in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment survey, and our Still needs a human score.
  • Only jobs with at least 25,000 workers in 2019, and whose job code did not change between the two years, are included.
  • May 2020 caught only the start of the pandemic downturn: employment across all jobs was down 5.3%. No job is fully recession-proof.

Related

Sources