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Will AI replace physical scientists?

12 jobs scored. On average 40% of the task time in these jobs still needs a person, and the family averages 70 out of 100 on Still needs a human, where higher is safer.

70
Average Still needs a human score, 0 to 100 ↑ safer. Will AI replace them? A little.
12
Jobs scored in this family
40%
Average share of that still needs a person
532k
US workers in these jobs

How the work could shift in Physical Scientists

The share of US workers in these jobs whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.

Today
0%
of US workers in this family are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
0%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
74% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
0%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
97% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)

Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works

Share of US workers in this family in each verdict band, today to 20600%25%50%75%100%2026: 100.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)100%Today2030: 70.5% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)71%2030: 29.5% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)30%20302035: 11.5% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)12%2035: 41.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)42%2035: 43.1% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)43%2035: 3.8% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)20352040: 3.4% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2040: 14.8% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)15%2040: 32.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)32%2040: 49.5% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)50%20402045: 3.4% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2045: 22.5% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)23%2045: 74.1% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)74%20452050: 3.4% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2050: 7.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)8%2050: 88.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)89%20502055: 3.4% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2055: 96.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)97%20552060: 3.4% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2060: 96.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)97%2060
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Share of US workers in this family whose job would sit in each band, year by year. Updated with every release.
Show the data
YearLargelyMostlyPartlyA littleNah
Today (2026)0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
20300.0%0.0%29.5%70.5%0.0%
20353.8%43.1%41.7%11.5%0.0%
204049.5%32.3%14.8%3.4%0.0%
204574.1%22.5%0.0%3.4%0.0%
205088.9%7.7%0.0%3.4%0.0%
205596.6%0.0%0.0%3.4%0.0%
206096.6%0.0%0.0%3.4%0.0%

Every job in Physical Scientists, ranked

How to read a row: the number is the Still needs a human score, out of 100, higher is safer; “AI replace?” is our answer to “Will AI replace this job?”; the bar is the task split: white AI does it, grey AI helps, amber needs a human.

PhysicistsLife, Physical, and Social Science · 19-2012
67↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 12%AI helps 49%Needs a human 39%
20402037–2049
20k
$172,250
Climate Change Policy AnalystsLife, Physical, and Social Science · 19-2041.01
67↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 66%Needs a human 34%
20412037–2049
89k
$82,220
AstronomersLife, Physical, and Social Science · 19-2011
68↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 16%AI helps 36%Needs a human 48%
20402037–2049
2k
$128,820
Remote Sensing Scientists and TechnologistsLife, Physical, and Social Science · 19-2099.01
68↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 6%AI helps 71%Needs a human 23%
20422037–2050
22k
$122,570
Atmospheric and Space ScientistsLife, Physical, and Social Science · 19-2021
68↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 10%AI helps 62%Needs a human 28%
20412037–2050
10k
$99,070
Industrial EcologistsLife, Physical, and Social Science · 19-2041.03
70↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 2%AI helps 77%Needs a human 21%
20422037–2051
89k
$82,220
Environmental Scientists and Specialists, Including HealthLife, Physical, and Social Science · 19-2041
70↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 6%AI helps 52%Needs a human 42%
20422038–2053
89k
$82,220
Geoscientists, Except Hydrologists and GeographersLife, Physical, and Social Science · 19-2042
71↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 6%AI helps 53%Needs a human 41%
20432038–2056
23k
$101,920
Environmental Restoration PlannersLife, Physical, and Social Science · 19-2041.02
73↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 73%Needs a human 27%
20432038–2053
89k
$82,220
HydrologistsLife, Physical, and Social Science · 19-2043
73↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 50%Needs a human 50%
20432038–2054
6k
$96,600
Materials ScientistsLife, Physical, and Social Science · 19-2032
75↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 7%AI helps 22%Needs a human 71%
20442038–2060+
8k
$117,790
ChemistsLife, Physical, and Social Science · 19-2031
76↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 40%Needs a human 60%
20452038–2060+
83k
$91,240