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Will AI replace personal care and service jobs?

31 jobs scored. On average 73% of the task time in these jobs still needs a person, and the family averages 78 out of 100 on Still needs a human, where higher is safer.

78
Average Still needs a human score, 0 to 100 ↑ safer. Will AI replace them? A little.
31
Jobs scored in this family
73%
Average share of that still needs a person
3.7M
US workers in these jobs

How the work could shift in Personal Care and Service

The share of US workers in these jobs whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.

Today
45%
of US workers in this family are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
5%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
44% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
5%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
91% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)

Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works

Share of US workers in this family in each verdict band, today to 20600%25%50%75%100%2026: 45.4% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)45%2026: 54.6% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)55%Today2030: 6.4% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)6%2030: 92.1% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)92%2030: 1.4% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)20302035: 4.5% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2035: 41.4% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)41%2035: 47.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)48%2035: 6.2% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)6%20352040: 4.5% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2040: 5.3% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2040: 38.4% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)38%2040: 38.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)38%2040: 13.5% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)14%20402045: 4.5% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2045: 4.6% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2045: 8.1% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)8%2045: 38.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)39%2045: 43.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)44%20452050: 4.5% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2050: 4.6% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2050: 23.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)24%2050: 67.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)67%20502055: 4.5% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2055: 4.6% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2055: 0.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)2055: 90.2% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)90%20552060: 4.5% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2060: 4.6% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2060: 90.8% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)91%2060
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Share of US workers in this family whose job would sit in each band, year by year. Updated with every release.
Show the data
YearLargelyMostlyPartlyA littleNah
Today (2026)0.0%0.0%0.0%54.6%45.4%
20300.0%0.0%1.4%92.1%6.4%
20350.0%6.2%47.9%41.4%4.5%
204013.5%38.3%38.4%5.3%4.5%
204543.9%38.9%8.1%4.6%4.5%
205067.0%23.9%0.0%4.6%4.5%
205590.2%0.6%0.0%4.6%4.5%
206090.8%0.0%0.0%4.6%4.5%

Every job in Personal Care and Service, ranked

How to read a row: the number is the Still needs a human score, out of 100, higher is safer; “AI replace?” is our answer to “Will AI replace this job?”; the bar is the task split: white AI does it, grey AI helps, amber needs a human.

ConciergesPersonal Care and Service · 39-6012
64↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 31%AI helps 33%Needs a human 36%
20442041–2054
49k
$38,950
First-Line Supervisors of Personal Service WorkersPersonal Care and Service · 39-1022
69↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 5%AI helps 49%Needs a human 46%
20452041–2054
114k
$48,590
First-Line Supervisors of Entertainment and Recreation Workers, Except Gambling ServicesPersonal Care and Service · 39-1014
70↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 12%AI helps 38%Needs a human 50%
20452041–2055
103k
$48,560
Travel GuidesPersonal Care and Service · 39-7012
73↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 6%AI helps 46%Needs a human 48%
20482042–2060+
54k
$38,120
First-Line Supervisors of Gambling Services WorkersPersonal Care and Service · 39-1013
75↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 41%Needs a human 59%
20472042–2060+
26k
$63,820
Residential AdvisorsPersonal Care and Service · 39-9041
75↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 4%AI helps 29%Needs a human 67%
20482042–2060+
85k
$42,240
Tour Guides and EscortsPersonal Care and Service · 39-7011
76↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 5%AI helps 35%Needs a human 60%
20482042–2060+
54k
$38,120
Gambling and Sports Book Writers and RunnersPersonal Care and Service · 39-3012
76↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 25%Needs a human 75%
20502042–2060+
9k
$34,980
Recreation WorkersPersonal Care and Service · 39-9032
76↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 38%Needs a human 62%
20482042–2060+
331k
$36,560
Amusement and Recreation AttendantsPersonal Care and Service · 39-3091
77↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 25%Needs a human 75%
20492042–2060+
398k
$32,150
Morticians, Undertakers, and Funeral ArrangersPersonal Care and Service · 39-4031
78↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 33%Needs a human 67%
20502043–2060+
25k
$55,010
Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness InstructorsPersonal Care and Service · 39-9031
78↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 31%Needs a human 69%
20492043–2060+
323k
$47,160
Baggage Porters and BellhopsPersonal Care and Service · 39-6011
78↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 8%AI helps 21%Needs a human 71%
20512042–2060+
29k
$37,080
Makeup Artists, Theatrical and PerformancePersonal Care and Service · 39-5091
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 34%Needs a human 66%
20502043–2060+
2k
$97,150
Costume AttendantsPersonal Care and Service · 39-3092
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 23%Needs a human 77%
20512043–2060+
7k
$50,400
Funeral AttendantsPersonal Care and Service · 39-4021
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 5%AI helps 17%Needs a human 78%
20512042–2060+
31k
$35,680
Ushers, Lobby Attendants, and Ticket TakersPersonal Care and Service · 39-3031
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 25%Needs a human 75%
20512043–2060+
122k
$32,910
ShampooersPersonal Care and Service · 39-5093
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 28%Needs a human 72%
20522043–2060+
8k
$32,600
Animal CaretakersPersonal Care and Service · 39-2021
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 20%Needs a human 80%
20512043–2060+
267k
$35,360
NanniesPersonal Care and Service · 39-9011.01
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 8%Needs a human 92%
20512043–2060+
519k
$34,980
Skincare SpecialistsPersonal Care and Service · 39-5094
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 19%Needs a human 81%
20522043–2060+
73k
$45,330
BarbersPersonal Care and Service · 39-5011
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 23%Needs a human 77%
20522043–2060+
15k
$38,210
Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and CosmetologistsPersonal Care and Service · 39-5012
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 6%AI helps 6%Needs a human 88%
20522043–2060+
306k
$35,790
Childcare WorkersPersonal Care and Service · 39-9011
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 4%AI helps 13%Needs a human 83%
20522043–2060+
519k
$34,980
Locker Room, Coatroom, and Dressing Room AttendantsPersonal Care and Service · 39-3093
82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 12%Needs a human 88%
20522043–2060+
16k
$36,300
Gambling DealersPersonal Care and Service · 39-3011
82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 8%Needs a human 92%
20512042–2060+
84k
$34,320
Manicurists and PedicuristsPersonal Care and Service · 39-5092
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 6%AI helps 12%Needs a human 82%
20532043–2060+
153k
$35,760
Crematory OperatorsPersonal Care and Service · 39-4012
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 17%Needs a human 83%
20532043–2060+
3k
$43,650
Motion Picture ProjectionistsPersonal Care and Service · 39-3021
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 5%Needs a human 95%
20542043–2060+
1k
$38,270
Animal TrainersPersonal Care and Service · 39-2011
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 10%Needs a human 90%
20552043–2060+
19k
$39,990
EmbalmersPersonal Care and Service · 39-4011
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 7%Needs a human 93%
20552043–2060+
4k
$58,780