Opens in a new tab
needsahuman.
Search ⌘KGet the data

Will AI replace protective service jobs?

26 jobs scored. On average 70% of the task time in these jobs still needs a person, and the family averages 78 out of 100 on Still needs a human, where higher is safer.

78
Average Still needs a human score, 0 to 100 ↑ safer. Will AI replace them? A little.
26
Jobs scored in this family
70%
Average share of that still needs a person
4.7M
US workers in these jobs

How the work could shift in Protective Service

The share of US workers in these jobs whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.

Today
64%
of US workers in this family are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
6%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
43% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
6%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
91% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)

Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works

Share of US workers in this family in each verdict band, today to 20600%25%50%75%100%2026: 64.1% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)64%2026: 35.9% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)36%Today2030: 14.4% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)14%2030: 85.3% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)85%2030: 0.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)20302035: 6.4% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)6%2035: 42.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)42%2035: 39.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)40%2035: 11.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)12%20352040: 6.4% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)6%2040: 4.8% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2040: 39.4% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)39%2040: 36.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)37%2040: 12.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)13%20402045: 6.4% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)6%2045: 3.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2045: 10.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)10%2045: 36.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)37%2045: 43.4% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)43%20452050: 6.4% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)6%2050: 3.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2050: 26.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)27%2050: 63.8% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)64%20502055: 6.4% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)6%2055: 3.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2055: 2.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)2055: 88.4% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)88%20552060: 6.4% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)6%2060: 3.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2060: 90.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)91%2060
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Share of US workers in this family whose job would sit in each band, year by year. Updated with every release.
Show the data
YearLargelyMostlyPartlyA littleNah
Today (2026)0.0%0.0%0.0%35.9%64.1%
20300.0%0.0%0.3%85.3%14.4%
20350.0%11.7%39.9%42.0%6.4%
204012.6%36.9%39.4%4.8%6.4%
204543.4%36.9%10.3%3.0%6.4%
205063.8%26.9%0.0%3.0%6.4%
205588.4%2.3%0.0%3.0%6.4%
206090.6%0.0%0.0%3.0%6.4%

Every job in Protective Service, ranked

How to read a row: the number is the Still needs a human score, out of 100, higher is safer; “AI replace?” is our answer to “Will AI replace this job?”; the bar is the task split: white AI does it, grey AI helps, amber needs a human.

Intelligence AnalystsProtective Service · 33-3021.06
67↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 6%AI helps 77%Needs a human 17%
20442040–2053
114k
$93,790
Gambling Surveillance Officers and Gambling InvestigatorsProtective Service · 33-9031
72↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 54%Needs a human 46%
20452041–2055
10k
$43,370
Customs and Border Protection OfficersProtective Service · 33-3051.04
73↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 52%Needs a human 48%
20472041–2060+
671k
$76,210
Private Detectives and InvestigatorsProtective Service · 33-9021
73↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 50%Needs a human 50%
20462041–2059
36k
$51,220
First-Line Supervisors of Police and DetectivesProtective Service · 33-1012
75↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 40%Needs a human 60%
20462041–2057
155k
$106,040
First-Line Supervisors of Security WorkersProtective Service · 33-1091
75↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 42%Needs a human 58%
20482042–2060+
81k
$55,940
Detectives and Criminal InvestigatorsProtective Service · 33-3021
76↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 6%AI helps 33%Needs a human 61%
20482042–2060+
114k
$93,790
Retail Loss Prevention SpecialistsProtective Service · 33-9099.02
76↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 5%AI helps 29%Needs a human 66%
20482042–2060+
82k
$42,540
Parking Enforcement WorkersProtective Service · 33-3041
77↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 36%Needs a human 64%
20482042–2060+
9k
$46,730
First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention WorkersProtective Service · 33-1021
77↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 5%AI helps 28%Needs a human 67%
20492042–2060+
99k
$93,530
First-Line Supervisors of Correctional OfficersProtective Service · 33-1011
77↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 26%Needs a human 74%
20482042–2060+
53k
$77,970
Animal Control WorkersProtective Service · 33-9011
77↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 32%Needs a human 68%
20492042–2060+
12k
$45,660
Transportation Security ScreenersProtective Service · 33-9093
78↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 35%Needs a human 65%
20492042–2060+
50k
$66,770
Fire Inspectors and InvestigatorsProtective Service · 33-2021
78↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 34%Needs a human 66%
20492042–2060+
14k
$75,920
Forest Fire Inspectors and Prevention SpecialistsProtective Service · 33-2022
78↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 30%Needs a human 70%
20492042–2060+
3k
$56,870
Police and Sheriff’s Patrol OfficersProtective Service · 33-3051
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 21%Needs a human 79%
20502042–2060+
671k
$76,210
Fish and Game WardensProtective Service · 33-3031
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 25%Needs a human 75%
20512042–2060+
6k
$74,060
Security GuardsProtective Service · 33-9032
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 9%AI helps 14%Needs a human 77%
20512042–2060+
1.3M
$38,020
School Bus MonitorsProtective Service · 33-9094
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 11%Needs a human 89%
20502042–2060+
78k
$35,100
Transit and Railroad PoliceProtective Service · 33-3052
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 17%Needs a human 83%
20502042–2060+
4k
$90,230
Police Identification and Records OfficersProtective Service · 33-3021.02
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 21%Needs a human 79%
20512042–2060+
114k
$93,790
Correctional Officers and JailersProtective Service · 33-3012
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 20%Needs a human 80%
20512042–2060+
381k
$58,940
BailiffsProtective Service · 33-3011
82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 16%Needs a human 84%
20512042–2060+
17k
$56,600
Crossing Guards and FlaggersProtective Service · 33-9091
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20512042–2060+
94k
$38,100
Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service WorkersProtective Service · 33-9092
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 8%Needs a human 92%
20522042–2060+
158k
$33,580
FirefightersProtective Service · 33-2011
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 3%Needs a human 97%
20542042–2060+
346k
$59,280