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Will AI replace transportation and material moving jobs?

52 jobs scored. On average 76% of the task time in these jobs still needs a person, and the family averages 80 out of 100 on Still needs a human, where higher is safer.

80
Average Still needs a human score, 0 to 100 ↑ safer. Will AI replace them? Nah.
52
Jobs scored in this family
76%
Average share of that still needs a person
18.5M
US workers in these jobs

How the work could shift in Transportation and Material Moving

The share of US workers in these jobs whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.

Today
49%
of US workers in this family are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
5%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
32% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
5%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
87% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)

Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works

Share of US workers in this family in each verdict band, today to 20600%25%50%75%100%2026: 49.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)49%2026: 51.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)51%Today2030: 28.4% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)28%2030: 71.6% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)72%20302035: 6.4% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)6%2035: 54.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)54%2035: 38.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)38%2035: 1.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)20352040: 4.9% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2040: 14.6% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)15%2040: 42.2% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)42%2040: 33.8% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)34%2040: 4.5% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)20402045: 4.9% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2045: 4.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2045: 18.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)19%2045: 40.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)41%2045: 31.5% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)32%20452050: 4.9% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2050: 4.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2050: 3.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)2050: 30.8% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)31%2050: 56.5% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)57%20502055: 4.9% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2055: 4.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2055: 10.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)10%2055: 80.8% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)81%20552060: 4.9% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2060: 4.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2060: 3.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)2060: 87.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)87%2060
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Share of US workers in this family whose job would sit in each band, year by year. Updated with every release.
Show the data
YearLargelyMostlyPartlyA littleNah
Today (2026)0.0%0.0%0.0%51.0%49.0%
20300.0%0.0%0.0%71.6%28.4%
20350.0%1.3%38.3%54.0%6.4%
20404.5%33.8%42.2%14.6%4.9%
204531.5%40.7%18.9%4.0%4.9%
205056.5%30.8%3.7%4.0%4.9%
205580.8%10.3%0.0%4.0%4.9%
206087.3%3.7%0.0%4.0%4.9%

Every job in Transportation and Material Moving, ranked

How to read a row: the number is the Still needs a human score, out of 100, higher is safer; “AI replace?” is our answer to “Will AI replace this job?”; the bar is the task split: white AI does it, grey AI helps, amber needs a human.

Air Traffic ControllersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-2021
66↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 91%Needs a human 9%
20462042–2054
23k
$148,080
Airfield Operations SpecialistsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-2022
71↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 3%AI helps 50%Needs a human 47%
20482043–2060+
15k
$56,850
First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, HandTransportation and Material Moving · 53-1042
71↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 6%AI helps 46%Needs a human 48%
20482043–2060+
624k
$62,890
Recycling CoordinatorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-1042.01
72↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 63%Needs a human 37%
20482043–2059
624k
$62,890
First-Line Supervisors of Passenger AttendantsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-1044
72↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 4%AI helps 37%Needs a human 59%
20462042–2057
624k
$62,890
First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle OperatorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-1043
72↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 47%Needs a human 53%
20482043–2060
624k
$62,890
Traffic TechniciansTransportation and Material Moving · 53-6041
74↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 4%AI helps 43%Needs a human 53%
20492043–2060+
8k
$59,090
Aircraft Cargo Handling SupervisorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-1041
75↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 40%Needs a human 60%
20492043–2060+
10k
$58,170
Passenger AttendantsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-6061
75↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 9%AI helps 18%Needs a human 73%
20482043–2060+
27k
$37,720
Transportation InspectorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-6051
76↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 45%Needs a human 55%
20512043–2060+
25k
$92,100
Bus Drivers, Transit and IntercityTransportation and Material Moving · 53-3052
76↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 8%AI helps 34%Needs a human 58%
20502043–2060+
159k
$59,050
Commercial PilotsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-2012
76↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 34%Needs a human 66%
20502043–2060+
48k
$123,220
Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight EngineersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-2011
76↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 43%Needs a human 57%
20502044–2060+
104k
$232,140
Railroad Conductors and YardmastersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-4031
76↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 34%Needs a human 66%
20492043–2060+
46k
$78,000
Taxi DriversTransportation and Material Moving · 53-3054
77↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 6%AI helps 25%Needs a human 69%
20512043–2060+
41k
$42,100
Transportation Vehicle, Equipment and Systems Inspectors, Except AviationTransportation and Material Moving · 53-6051.07
78↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 32%Needs a human 68%
20522044–2060+
25k
$92,100
Stockers and Order FillersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7065
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 29%Needs a human 71%
20522044–2060+
2.8M
$37,330
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck DriversTransportation and Material Moving · 53-3032
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 31%Needs a human 69%
20522044–2060+
2.1M
$58,640
Subway and Streetcar OperatorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-4041
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 28%Needs a human 72%
20512044–2060+
10k
$86,380
Ship EngineersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-5031
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 27%Needs a human 73%
20532044–2060+
8k
$109,530
Shuttle Drivers and ChauffeursTransportation and Material Moving · 53-3053
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 25%Needs a human 75%
20522043–2060+
249k
$37,290
Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water VesselsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-5021
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 27%Needs a human 73%
20512044–2060+
37k
$92,460
Gas Compressor and Gas Pumping Station OperatorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7071
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 36%Needs a human 64%
20532044–2060+
4k
$77,320
Driver/Sales WorkersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-3031
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 35%Needs a human 65%
20522044–2060+
409k
$38,770
Light Truck DriversTransportation and Material Moving · 53-3033
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 23%Needs a human 77%
20532044–2060+
983k
$44,860
Aviation InspectorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-6051.01
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 20%Needs a human 80%
20522044–2060+
25k
$92,100
Bus Drivers, SchoolTransportation and Material Moving · 53-3051
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 24%Needs a human 76%
20522044–2060+
403k
$47,920
Bridge and Lock TendersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-6011
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 19%Needs a human 81%
20532044–2060+
3k
$57,700
Flight AttendantsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-2031
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 11%Needs a human 89%
20512043–2060+
132k
$63,580
Pump Operators, Except Wellhead PumpersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7072
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 24%Needs a human 76%
20532044–2060+
10k
$61,770
Conveyor Operators and TendersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7011
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 26%Needs a human 74%
20542044–2060+
23k
$42,420
Automotive and Watercraft Service AttendantsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-6031
82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 17%Needs a human 83%
20542044–2060+
102k
$35,670
Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and HostlersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-4013
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 13%Needs a human 87%
20542044–2060+
4k
$60,600
Refuse and Recyclable Material CollectorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7081
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 18%Needs a human 82%
20542044–2060+
147k
$49,690
Aircraft Service AttendantsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-6032
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 10%Needs a human 90%
20542044–2060+
31k
$40,450
Parking AttendantsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-6021
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20542043–2060+
138k
$35,150
Crane and Tower OperatorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7021
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 17%Needs a human 83%
20552044–2060+
43k
$68,080
Wellhead PumpersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7073
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 9%Needs a human 91%
20552044–2060+
18k
$69,960
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, HandTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7062
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 19%Needs a human 81%
20552044–2060+
3M
$40,240
Locomotive EngineersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-4011
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 4%Needs a human 96%
20532044–2060+
33k
$81,410
Tank Car, Truck, and Ship LoadersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7121
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 6%Needs a human 94%
20552044–2060+
11k
$58,870
Machine Feeders and OffbearersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7063
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 9%Needs a human 91%
20562044–2060+
42k
$41,220
Sailors and Marine OilersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-5011
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 9%Needs a human 91%
20562044–2060+
32k
$51,520
Packers and Packagers, HandTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7064
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20562044–2060+
560k
$36,280
Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive FirersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-4022
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 8%Needs a human 92%
20562044–2060+
12k
$68,840
Cleaners of Vehicles and EquipmentTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7061
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20572044–2060+
380k
$35,830
Hoist and Winch OperatorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7041
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20572044–2060+
3k
$56,450
Ambulance Drivers and Attendants, Except Emergency Medical TechniciansTransportation and Material Moving · 53-3011
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20572044–2060+
13k
$35,450
Motorboat OperatorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-5022
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 6%Needs a human 94%
20572044–2060+
2k
$47,520
Recycling and Reclamation WorkersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7062.04
88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20582044–2060+
3M
$40,240
Industrial Truck and Tractor OperatorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7051
88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20582044–2060+
774k
$46,420
Dredge OperatorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7031
89↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20582044–2060+
1k
$49,640