Will AI replace grounds maintenance workers?
3 jobs scored. On average 90% of the task time in these jobs still needs a person, and the family averages 85 out of 100 on Still needs a human, where higher is safer.
85
Average Still needs a human score, 0 to 100 ↑ safer. Will AI replace them? Nah.
3
Jobs scored in this family
90%
Average share of Task timeHow a job’s working hours divide between its tasks. Tasks that matter more and come up more often get a bigger share.More in the glossary that still needs a person
1M
US workers in these jobs
How the work could shift in Grounds Maintenance Workers
The share of US workers in these jobs whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.
Today
100%
of US workers in this family are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
84%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
11% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
84%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
16% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Show the data
| Year | Largely | Mostly | Partly | A little | Nah |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today (2026) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2030 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 96.6% |
| 2035 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.1% | 5.3% | 83.6% |
| 2040 | 0.0% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 83.6% |
| 2045 | 10.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 83.6% |
| 2050 | 12.6% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 83.6% |
| 2055 | 14.2% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 83.6% |
| 2060 | 15.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 83.6% |
Every job in Grounds Maintenance Workers, ranked
Pesticide Handlers, Sprayers, and Applicators, VegetationBuilding and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance · 37-3012
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 22%Needs a human 78%
20552046–2060+
27k
$46,340
Tree Trimmers and PrunersBuilding and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance · 37-3013
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 8%Needs a human 92%
20582046–2060+
55k
$50,960
Landscaping and Groundskeeping WorkersBuilding and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance · 37-3011
88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2046–2060+
953k
$39,150