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Will AI replace construction and extraction jobs?

61 jobs scored. On average 91% of the task time in these jobs still needs a person, and the family averages 85 out of 100 on Still needs a human, where higher is safer.

85
Average Still needs a human score, 0 to 100 ↑ safer. Will AI replace them? Nah.
61
Jobs scored in this family
91%
Average share of that still needs a person
7.8M
US workers in these jobs

How the work could shift in Construction and Extraction

The share of US workers in these jobs whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.

Today
84%
of US workers in this family are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
36%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
14% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
36%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
57% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)

Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works

Share of US workers in this family in each verdict band, today to 20600%25%50%75%100%2026: 84.2% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)84%2026: 15.8% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)16%Today2030: 64.3% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)64%2030: 35.7% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)36%20302035: 36.3% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)36%2035: 47.6% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)48%2035: 16.1% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)16%20352040: 36.3% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)36%2040: 16.5% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)17%2040: 29.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)29%2040: 18.2% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)18%20402045: 36.3% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)36%2045: 1.6% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2045: 20.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)20%2045: 28.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)28%2045: 13.8% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)14%20452050: 36.3% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)36%2050: 1.6% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2050: 4.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)2050: 26.1% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)26%2050: 31.1% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)31%20502055: 36.3% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)36%2055: 1.6% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2055: 17.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)17%2055: 45.2% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)45%20552060: 36.3% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)36%2060: 1.6% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2060: 4.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)2060: 57.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)57%2060
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Share of US workers in this family whose job would sit in each band, year by year. Updated with every release.
Show the data
YearLargelyMostlyPartlyA littleNah
Today (2026)0.0%0.0%0.0%15.8%84.2%
20300.0%0.0%0.0%35.7%64.3%
20350.0%0.0%16.1%47.6%36.3%
20400.0%18.2%29.0%16.5%36.3%
204513.8%28.0%20.3%1.6%36.3%
205031.1%26.1%4.9%1.6%36.3%
205545.2%17.0%0.0%1.6%36.3%
206057.3%4.9%0.0%1.6%36.3%

Every job in Construction and Extraction, ranked

How to read a row: the number is the Still needs a human score, out of 100, higher is safer; “AI replace?” is our answer to “Will AI replace this job?”; the bar is the task split: white AI does it, grey AI helps, amber needs a human.

First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction WorkersConstruction and Extraction · 47-1011
72↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 8%AI helps 46%Needs a human 46%
20512047–2060+
812k
$79,920
Energy AuditorsConstruction and Extraction · 47-4011.01
73↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 56%Needs a human 44%
20532047–2060+
147k
$74,690
Solar Energy Installation ManagersConstruction and Extraction · 47-1011.03
75↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 44%Needs a human 56%
20522047–2060+
812k
$79,920
Solar Photovoltaic InstallersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2231
77↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 34%Needs a human 66%
20552047–2060+
31k
$53,140
Insulation Workers, MechanicalConstruction and Extraction · 47-2132
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 9%AI helps 24%Needs a human 67%
20552047–2060+
26k
$58,340
Construction and Building InspectorsConstruction and Extraction · 47-4011
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 30%Needs a human 70%
20552047–2060+
147k
$74,690
Weatherization Installers and TechniciansConstruction and Extraction · 47-4099.03
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 34%Needs a human 66%
20562047–2060+
28k
$49,910
ElectriciansConstruction and Extraction · 47-2111
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 22%Needs a human 78%
20572047–2060+
757k
$63,190
Service Unit Operators, Oil and GasConstruction and Extraction · 47-5013
82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 13%Needs a human 87%
20582048–2060+
43k
$58,160
Plumbers, Pipefitters, and SteamfittersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2152
82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 4%AI helps 15%Needs a human 81%
20582047–2060+
466k
$63,800
Septic Tank Servicers and Sewer Pipe CleanersConstruction and Extraction · 47-4071
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 14%Needs a human 86%
20582048–2060+
31k
$49,880
Sheet Metal WorkersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2211
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 16%Needs a human 84%
20582048–2060+
120k
$61,800
CarpentersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2031
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 23%Needs a human 77%
20582048–2060+
670k
$60,580
Elevator and Escalator Installers and RepairersConstruction and Extraction · 47-4021
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 7%Needs a human 93%
20592048–2060+
24k
$109,910
Tile and Stone SettersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2044
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 13%Needs a human 87%
20592048–2060+
36k
$55,690
Painters, Construction and MaintenanceConstruction and Extraction · 47-2141
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 14%Needs a human 86%
20592048–2060+
225k
$49,400
Brickmasons and BlockmasonsConstruction and Extraction · 47-2021
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 8%Needs a human 92%
20592047–2060+
53k
$62,120
Rotary Drill Operators, Oil and GasConstruction and Extraction · 47-5012
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 7%Needs a human 93%
20592048–2060+
13k
$67,890
Earth Drillers, Except Oil and GasConstruction and Extraction · 47-5023
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 9%Needs a human 91%
20592048–2060+
19k
$60,190
Solar Thermal Installers and TechniciansConstruction and Extraction · 47-2152.04
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 10%Needs a human 90%
20592048–2060+
466k
$63,800
Hazardous Materials Removal WorkersConstruction and Extraction · 47-4041
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 7%Needs a human 93%
2048–2060+
52k
$49,450
Carpet InstallersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2041
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 7%Needs a human 93%
20602048–2060+
14k
$50,340
Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment OperatorsConstruction and Extraction · 47-2073
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 4%Needs a human 96%
20602048–2060+
478k
$59,850
Reinforcing Iron and Rebar WorkersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2171
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 13%Needs a human 87%
20602048–2060+
14k
$58,970
Explosives Workers, Ordnance Handling Experts, and BlastersConstruction and Extraction · 47-5032
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 9%Needs a human 91%
20602048–2060+
5k
$61,390
Derrick Operators, Oil and GasConstruction and Extraction · 47-5011
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 7%Needs a human 93%
20602048–2060+
11k
$58,620
Structural Iron and Steel WorkersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2221
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 8%AI helps 0%Needs a human 92%
20602048–2060+
68k
$62,780
GlaziersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2121
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 9%Needs a human 91%
20602048–2060+
58k
$57,080
Plasterers and Stucco MasonsConstruction and Extraction · 47-2161
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 7%Needs a human 93%
2048–2060+
19k
$57,660
Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface MiningConstruction and Extraction · 47-5022
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20602048–2060+
34k
$57,430
Fence ErectorsConstruction and Extraction · 47-4031
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 5%Needs a human 95%
2047–2060+
24k
$47,980
PaperhangersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2142
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2047–2060+
2k
$52,140
BoilermakersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2011
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 8%Needs a human 92%
2048–2060+
10k
$76,410
Segmental PaversConstruction and Extraction · 47-4091
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 8%Needs a human 92%
2048–2060+
28k
$49,910
Drywall and Ceiling Tile InstallersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2081
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 7%Needs a human 93%
2048–2060+
83k
$58,930
RoofersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2181
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 6%AI helps 0%Needs a human 94%
2048–2060+
135k
$55,440
Continuous Mining Machine OperatorsConstruction and Extraction · 47-5041
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
14k
$61,810
Loading and Moving Machine Operators, Underground MiningConstruction and Extraction · 47-5044
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 3%Needs a human 97%
2048–2060+
6k
$74,500
Helpers–Pipelayers, Plumbers, Pipefitters, and SteamfittersConstruction and Extraction · 47-3015
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
44k
$42,360
Helpers–Brickmasons, Blockmasons, Stonemasons, and Tile and Marble SettersConstruction and Extraction · 47-3011
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
14k
$47,550
Construction LaborersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2061
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 4%Needs a human 96%
2048–2060+
1.1M
$47,120
Helpers–ElectriciansConstruction and Extraction · 47-3013
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 3%Needs a human 97%
2048–2060+
64k
$42,670
Insulation Workers, Floor, Ceiling, and WallConstruction and Extraction · 47-2131
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
44k
$49,120
TapersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2082
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
13k
$68,270
PipelayersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2151
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
33k
$49,000
Helpers–Extraction WorkersConstruction and Extraction · 47-5081
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
7k
$47,730
Terrazzo Workers and FinishersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2053
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
1k
$76,170
Floor Layers, Except Carpet, Wood, and Hard TilesConstruction and Extraction · 47-2042
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
24k
$56,460
Cement Masons and Concrete FinishersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2051
88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
206k
$57,020
Helpers–RoofersConstruction and Extraction · 47-3016
88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
6k
$44,160
Roof Bolters, MiningConstruction and Extraction · 47-5043
88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
2k
$78,540
Rock Splitters, QuarryConstruction and Extraction · 47-5051
88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
3k
$48,740
Helpers–CarpentersConstruction and Extraction · 47-3012
88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
22k
$43,780
StonemasonsConstruction and Extraction · 47-2022
88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
8k
$57,390
Highway Maintenance WorkersConstruction and Extraction · 47-4051
88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
155k
$50,260
Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment OperatorsConstruction and Extraction · 47-2071
88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
42k
$53,340
Helpers–Painters, Paperhangers, Plasterers, and Stucco MasonsConstruction and Extraction · 47-3014
88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
7k
$40,470
Roustabouts, Oil and GasConstruction and Extraction · 47-5071
88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
45k
$46,960
Rail-Track Laying and Maintenance Equipment OperatorsConstruction and Extraction · 47-4061
89↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
20k
$70,070
Pile Driver OperatorsConstruction and Extraction · 47-2072
89↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
2k
$73,300
Floor Sanders and FinishersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2043
89↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
4k
$50,440