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Will AI replace vehicle mechanics?

14 jobs scored. On average 91% of the task time in these jobs still needs a person, and the family averages 85 out of 100 on Still needs a human, where higher is safer.

85
Average Still needs a human score, 0 to 100 ↑ safer. Will AI replace them? Nah.
14
Jobs scored in this family
91%
Average share of that still needs a person
1.7M
US workers in these jobs

How the work could shift in Vehicle Mechanics

The share of US workers in these jobs whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.

Today
100%
of US workers in this family are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
10%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
20% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
10%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
86% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)

Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works

Share of US workers in this family in each verdict band, today to 20600%25%50%75%100%2026: 100.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)100%Today2030: 64.2% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)64%2030: 35.8% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)36%20302035: 10.6% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)11%2035: 70.1% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)70%2035: 19.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)19%20352040: 10.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)10%2040: 24.4% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)24%2040: 39.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)40%2040: 25.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)26%20402045: 10.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)10%2045: 34.4% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)34%2045: 35.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)36%2045: 20.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)20%20452050: 10.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)10%2050: 5.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)2050: 44.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)45%2050: 40.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)40%20502055: 10.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)10%2055: 24.4% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)24%2055: 65.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)66%20552060: 10.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)10%2060: 4.4% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)2060: 85.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)86%2060
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Share of US workers in this family whose job would sit in each band, year by year. Updated with every release.
Show the data
YearLargelyMostlyPartlyA littleNah
Today (2026)0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20300.0%0.0%0.0%35.8%64.2%
20350.0%0.0%19.3%70.1%10.6%
20400.0%25.9%39.7%24.4%10.0%
204520.0%35.6%34.4%0.0%10.0%
205040.0%44.7%5.3%0.0%10.0%
205565.6%24.4%0.0%0.0%10.0%
206085.6%4.4%0.0%0.0%10.0%

Every job in Vehicle Mechanics, ranked

How to read a row: the number is the Still needs a human score, out of 100, higher is safer; “AI replace?” is our answer to “Will AI replace this job?”; the bar is the task split: white AI does it, grey AI helps, amber needs a human.

Farm Equipment Mechanics and Service TechniciansInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair · 49-3041
82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 15%Needs a human 85%
20562046–2060+
38k
$56,550
Aircraft Mechanics and Service TechniciansInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair · 49-3011
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 15%Needs a human 85%
20562045–2060+
138k
$79,870
Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except EnginesInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair · 49-3042
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 15%Needs a human 85%
20562045–2060+
177k
$65,510
Bicycle RepairersInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair · 49-3091
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 19%Needs a human 81%
20562045–2060+
12k
$42,780
Outdoor Power Equipment and Other Small Engine MechanicsInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair · 49-3053
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 16%Needs a human 84%
20562046–2060+
36k
$47,880
Automotive Service Technicians and MechanicsInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair · 49-3023
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 7%Needs a human 93%
20562045–2060+
705k
$50,620
Recreational Vehicle Service TechniciansInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair · 49-3092
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 11%Needs a human 89%
20572045–2060+
17k
$52,000
Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine SpecialistsInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair · 49-3031
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20572045–2060+
290k
$61,770
Motorboat Mechanics and Service TechniciansInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair · 49-3051
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 10%Needs a human 90%
20582046–2060+
23k
$57,550
Motorcycle MechanicsInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair · 49-3052
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20582046–2060+
14k
$48,580
Automotive Body and Related RepairersInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair · 49-3021
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 4%Needs a human 96%
20582045–2060+
149k
$54,890
Rail Car RepairersInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair · 49-3043
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 8%Needs a human 92%
20582046–2060+
21k
$67,530
Automotive Glass Installers and RepairersInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair · 49-3022
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20592046–2060+
20k
$47,630
Tire Repairers and ChangersInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair · 49-3093
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 3%Needs a human 97%
20592046–2060+
108k
$37,710