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Will AI replace personal appearance workers?

6 jobs scored. On average 78% of the task time in these jobs still needs a person, and the family averages 81 out of 100 on Still needs a human, where higher is safer.

81
Average Still needs a human score, 0 to 100 ↑ safer. Will AI replace them? Nah.
6
Jobs scored in this family
78%
Average share of that still needs a person
557k
US workers in these jobs

How the work could shift in Personal Appearance Workers

The share of US workers in these jobs whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.

Today
100%
of US workers in this family are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
10%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
30% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
10%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
90% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)

Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works

Share of US workers in this family in each verdict band, today to 20600%25%50%75%100%2026: 99.6% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)100%2026: 0.4% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)Today2030: 18.2% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)18%2030: 81.8% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)82%20302035: 10.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)10%2035: 52.7% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)53%2035: 37.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)37%20352040: 10.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)10%2040: 2.8% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2040: 47.2% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)47%2040: 30.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)30%2040: 10.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)10%20402045: 10.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)10%2045: 12.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)13%2045: 47.1% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)47%2045: 30.2% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)30%20452050: 10.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)10%2050: 30.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)30%2050: 60.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)60%20502055: 10.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)10%2055: 2.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)2055: 87.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)87%20552060: 10.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)10%2060: 90.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)90%2060
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Share of US workers in this family whose job would sit in each band, year by year. Updated with every release.
Show the data
YearLargelyMostlyPartlyA littleNah
Today (2026)0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%99.6%
20300.0%0.0%0.0%81.8%18.2%
20350.0%0.0%37.3%52.7%10.0%
204010.0%30.0%47.2%2.8%10.0%
204530.2%47.1%12.7%0.0%10.0%
205060.0%30.0%0.0%0.0%10.0%
205587.3%2.7%0.0%0.0%10.0%
206090.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%10.0%

Every job in Personal Appearance Workers, ranked

How to read a row: the number is the Still needs a human score, out of 100, higher is safer; “AI replace?” is our answer to “Will AI replace this job?”; the bar is the task split: white AI does it, grey AI helps, amber needs a human.

Makeup Artists, Theatrical and PerformancePersonal Care and Service · 39-5091
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 34%Needs a human 66%
20502043–2060+
2k
$97,150
ShampooersPersonal Care and Service · 39-5093
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 28%Needs a human 72%
20522043–2060+
8k
$32,600
Skincare SpecialistsPersonal Care and Service · 39-5094
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 19%Needs a human 81%
20522043–2060+
73k
$45,330
BarbersPersonal Care and Service · 39-5011
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 23%Needs a human 77%
20522043–2060+
15k
$38,210
Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and CosmetologistsPersonal Care and Service · 39-5012
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 6%AI helps 6%Needs a human 88%
20522043–2060+
306k
$35,790
Manicurists and PedicuristsPersonal Care and Service · 39-5092
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 6%AI helps 12%Needs a human 82%
20532043–2060+
153k
$35,760