Will AI replace production jobs?
107 jobs scored. On average 85% of the task time in these jobs still needs a person, and the family averages 83 out of 100 on Still needs a human, where higher is safer.
83
Average Still needs a human score, 0 to 100 ↑ safer. Will AI replace them? Nah.
107
Jobs scored in this family
85%
Average share of Task timeHow a job’s working hours divide between its tasks. Tasks that matter more and come up more often get a bigger share.More in the glossary that still needs a person
8.6M
US workers in these jobs
How the work could shift in Production
The share of US workers in these jobs whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.
Today
61%
of US workers in this family are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
6%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
23% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
6%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
84% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Show the data
| Year | Largely | Mostly | Partly | A little | Nah |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today (2026) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| 2030 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 60.7% | 39.0% |
| 2035 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 29.0% | 64.1% | 6.9% |
| 2040 | 0.0% | 28.0% | 46.5% | 19.1% | 6.4% |
| 2045 | 22.8% | 38.7% | 28.5% | 3.5% | 6.4% |
| 2050 | 46.3% | 38.1% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 6.4% |
| 2055 | 67.7% | 22.9% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 6.4% |
| 2060 | 84.4% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 6.4% |
Every job in Production, ranked
Computer Numerically Controlled Tool ProgrammersProduction · 51-9162
62↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 13%AI helps 71%Needs a human 16%
20472044–2055
29k
$68,120
Prepress Technicians and WorkersProduction · 51-5111
70↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 8%AI helps 61%Needs a human 31%
20512045–2060+
24k
$48,690
First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating WorkersProduction · 51-1011
70↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 51%Needs a human 49%
20492044–2059
673k
$74,450
Power Distributors and DispatchersProduction · 51-8012
71↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 66%Needs a human 34%
20492045–2059
9k
$106,730
Power Plant OperatorsProduction · 51-8013
73↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 5%AI helps 53%Needs a human 42%
20532046–2060+
29k
$102,040
Fabric and Apparel PatternmakersProduction · 51-6092
75↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 46%Needs a human 54%
20522046–2060+
3k
$62,750
Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and GaugersProduction · 51-8093
76↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 5%AI helps 35%Needs a human 60%
20542046–2060+
33k
$96,710
Gas Plant OperatorsProduction · 51-8092
77↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 22%Needs a human 78%
20542046–2060+
18k
$87,820
Computer Numerically Controlled Tool OperatorsProduction · 51-9161
77↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 29%Needs a human 71%
20532045–2060+
169k
$50,690
Printing Press OperatorsProduction · 51-5112
77↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 33%Needs a human 67%
20542046–2060+
144k
$45,780
Photographic Process Workers and Processing Machine OperatorsProduction · 51-9151
77↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 24%Needs a human 76%
20542046–2060+
5k
$40,610
Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and WeighersProduction · 51-9061
78↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 4%AI helps 20%Needs a human 76%
20542046–2060+
597k
$48,570
Biofuels Processing TechniciansProduction · 51-8099.01
78↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 29%Needs a human 71%
20552046–2060+
14k
$62,470
Team AssemblersProduction · 51-2092
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 29%Needs a human 71%
20552046–2060+
1.4M
$44,650
Chemical Equipment Operators and TendersProduction · 51-9011
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 29%Needs a human 71%
20552046–2060+
140k
$58,040
Patternmakers, WoodProduction · 51-7032
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 5%AI helps 19%Needs a human 76%
20552046–2060+
220
$49,630
Textile Bleaching and Dyeing Machine Operators and TendersProduction · 51-6061
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 4%AI helps 18%Needs a human 78%
20552046–2060+
5k
$38,180
Nuclear Power Reactor OperatorsProduction · 51-8011
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 16%Needs a human 84%
20532046–2060+
5k
$122,890
Semiconductor Processing TechniciansProduction · 51-9141
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 23%Needs a human 77%
20552046–2060+
31k
$51,430
MachinistsProduction · 51-4041
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 20%Needs a human 80%
20552046–2060+
287k
$58,750
Furnace, Kiln, Oven, Drier, and Kettle Operators and TendersProduction · 51-9051
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 19%Needs a human 81%
20552046–2060+
14k
$48,040
Patternmakers, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4062
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 29%Needs a human 71%
20552046–2060+
1k
$58,000
Stationary Engineers and Boiler OperatorsProduction · 51-8021
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 17%Needs a human 83%
20552046–2060+
28k
$78,620
Chemical Plant and System OperatorsProduction · 51-8091
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 23%Needs a human 77%
20542046–2060+
17k
$78,120
Textile Knitting and Weaving Machine Setters, Operators, and TendersProduction · 51-6063
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 6%AI helps 15%Needs a human 79%
20552046–2060+
13k
$39,530
Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4034
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 22%Needs a human 78%
20552046–2060+
17k
$50,620
Textile Cutting Machine Setters, Operators, and TendersProduction · 51-6062
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 6%AI helps 15%Needs a human 79%
20552046–2060+
9k
$38,760
Milling and Planing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4035
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 25%Needs a human 75%
20552046–2060+
12k
$52,800
Rolling Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4023
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 21%Needs a human 79%
20552046–2060+
25k
$50,140
Model Makers, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4061
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 23%Needs a human 77%
20552046–2060+
3k
$63,340
Jewelers and Precious Stone and Metal WorkersProduction · 51-9071
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 4%AI helps 13%Needs a human 83%
20552046–2060+
22k
$52,540
Electrical and Electronic Equipment AssemblersProduction · 51-2022
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 7%AI helps 6%Needs a human 87%
20552046–2060+
247k
$45,850
Hydroelectric Plant TechniciansProduction · 51-8013.04
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 18%Needs a human 82%
20562046–2060+
29k
$102,040
Layout Workers, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4192
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 21%Needs a human 79%
20562046–2060+
6k
$63,870
Water and Wastewater Treatment Plant and System OperatorsProduction · 51-8031
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 16%Needs a human 84%
20562046–2060+
128k
$60,020
Butchers and Meat CuttersProduction · 51-3021
82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 16%Needs a human 84%
20552046–2060+
136k
$40,140
Tool and Die MakersProduction · 51-4111
82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 28%Needs a human 72%
20562046–2060+
57k
$64,050
Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and TendersProduction · 51-4051
82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 14%Needs a human 86%
20562046–2060+
17k
$54,430
Model Makers, WoodProduction · 51-7031
82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 6%Needs a human 94%
20562046–2060+
280
$56,550
Mixing and Blending Machine Setters, Operators, and TendersProduction · 51-9023
82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 11%Needs a human 89%
20562046–2060+
95k
$48,990
Cabinetmakers and Bench CarpentersProduction · 51-7011
82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 20%Needs a human 80%
20562046–2060+
77k
$46,680
Heat Treating Equipment Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4191
82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 16%Needs a human 84%
20562046–2060+
14k
$48,750
Coil Winders, Tapers, and FinishersProduction · 51-2021
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 20%Needs a human 80%
20562046–2060+
13k
$48,220
Forging Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4022
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 9%Needs a human 91%
20562046–2060+
9k
$49,030
Food Cooking Machine Operators and TendersProduction · 51-3093
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 12%Needs a human 88%
20572046–2060+
31k
$41,590
Crushing, Grinding, and Polishing Machine Setters, Operators, and TendersProduction · 51-9021
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 13%Needs a human 87%
20572046–2060+
26k
$48,540
BakersProduction · 51-3011
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 16%Needs a human 84%
20572046–2060+
236k
$37,160
Adhesive Bonding Machine Operators and TendersProduction · 51-9191
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 13%Needs a human 87%
20562046–2060+
12k
$46,460
Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffing Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4033
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 11%Needs a human 89%
20572046–2060+
67k
$46,550
Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4021
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 6%Needs a human 94%
20572046–2060+
61k
$47,720
Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4081
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 13%Needs a human 87%
20562046–2060+
125k
$47,180
UpholsterersProduction · 51-6093
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 15%Needs a human 85%
20572046–2060+
20k
$46,340
Gem and Diamond WorkersProduction · 51-9071.06
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 6%Needs a human 94%
20562046–2060+
22k
$52,540
Welding, Soldering, and Brazing Machine Setters, Operators, and TendersProduction · 51-4122
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 11%Needs a human 89%
20572046–2060+
32k
$47,920
Furniture FinishersProduction · 51-7021
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 10%Needs a human 90%
20572046–2060+
14k
$44,540
Cooling and Freezing Equipment Operators and TendersProduction · 51-9193
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 7%Needs a human 93%
20572046–2060+
7k
$41,330
Plating Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4193
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 10%Needs a human 90%
20572046–2060+
32k
$43,960
Biomass Plant TechniciansProduction · 51-8013.03
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 7%Needs a human 93%
20582046–2060+
29k
$102,040
Food BatchmakersProduction · 51-3092
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 11%Needs a human 89%
20572046–2060+
175k
$42,290
Cutting and Slicing Machine Setters, Operators, and TendersProduction · 51-9032
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 4%AI helps 4%Needs a human 92%
20572046–2060+
45k
$46,570
Print Binding and Finishing WorkersProduction · 51-5113
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 10%Needs a human 90%
20572046–2060+
33k
$42,290
Textile Winding, Twisting, and Drawing Out Machine Setters, Operators, and TendersProduction · 51-6064
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 14%Needs a human 86%
20582046–2060+
22k
$38,670
Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and TendersProduction · 51-9124
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 4%Needs a human 96%
20582046–2060+
159k
$48,250
Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still Machine Setters, Operators, and TendersProduction · 51-9012
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 6%Needs a human 94%
20572046–2060+
60k
$51,610
Extruding, Forming, Pressing, and Compacting Machine Setters, Operators, and TendersProduction · 51-9041
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 9%Needs a human 91%
20582046–2060+
59k
$45,760
Sawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, WoodProduction · 51-7041
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 4%Needs a human 96%
20572046–2060+
41k
$42,770
Medical Appliance TechniciansProduction · 51-9082
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 13%Needs a human 87%
20572046–2060+
11k
$48,030
Engine and Other Machine AssemblersProduction · 51-2031
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 10%Needs a human 90%
20582046–2060+
34k
$53,710
Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4031
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 8%Needs a human 92%
20582046–2060+
171k
$46,330
Glass Blowers, Molders, Benders, and FinishersProduction · 51-9195.04
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 12%Needs a human 88%
20572046–2060+
33k
$46,170
Tool Grinders, Filers, and SharpenersProduction · 51-4194
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 6%Needs a human 94%
20582046–2060+
6k
$50,060
Molding, Coremaking, and Casting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4072
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 10%Needs a human 90%
20582046–2060+
150k
$44,350
Etchers and EngraversProduction · 51-9194
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 9%Needs a human 91%
20582046–2060+
8k
$43,310
Tailors, Dressmakers, and Custom SewersProduction · 51-6052
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 8%Needs a human 92%
20582046–2060+
14k
$41,640
Extruding and Forming Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Synthetic and Glass FibersProduction · 51-6091
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 6%Needs a human 94%
20582046–2060+
13k
$46,350
Molders, Shapers, and Casters, Except Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-9195
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 5%Needs a human 95%
20582046–2060+
33k
$46,170
Cutters and Trimmers, HandProduction · 51-9031
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 6%Needs a human 94%
20582046–2060+
6k
$38,020
Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except SawingProduction · 51-7042
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 4%Needs a human 96%
20582046–2060+
61k
$43,380
Drilling and Boring Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4032
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 7%Needs a human 93%
20582046–2060+
5k
$49,080
Food and Tobacco Roasting, Baking, and Drying Machine Operators and TendersProduction · 51-3091
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 11%Needs a human 89%
20582046–2060+
20k
$44,810
Electromechanical Equipment AssemblersProduction · 51-2023
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 8%Needs a human 92%
20582046–2060+
247k
$45,850
Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and TrimmersProduction · 51-3022
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20582046–2060+
146k
$38,300
Timing Device Assemblers and AdjustersProduction · 51-2061
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 5%AI helps 0%Needs a human 95%
20582046–2060+
250
$62,620
Grinding and Polishing Workers, HandProduction · 51-9022
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20582046–2060+
11k
$42,660
Ophthalmic Laboratory TechniciansProduction · 51-9083
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 6%Needs a human 94%
20582046–2060+
19k
$39,460
Potters, ManufacturingProduction · 51-9195.05
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20582046–2060+
33k
$46,170
Aircraft Structure, Surfaces, Rigging, and Systems AssemblersProduction · 51-2011
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 5%AI helps 0%Needs a human 95%
20582046–2060+
34k
$65,380
Shoe Machine Operators and TendersProduction · 51-6042
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 5%Needs a human 95%
20592046–2060+
3k
$35,650
Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and TendersProduction · 51-9196
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20592046–2060+
96k
$50,270
Dental Laboratory TechniciansProduction · 51-9081
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 8%Needs a human 92%
20592046–2060+
34k
$49,610
Sewing Machine OperatorsProduction · 51-6031
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 4%Needs a human 96%
20592046–2060+
105k
$36,670
Painting, Coating, and Decorating WorkersProduction · 51-9123
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20592046–2060+
8k
$41,600
Structural Metal Fabricators and FittersProduction · 51-2041
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 6%Needs a human 94%
20592046–2060+
52k
$51,330
Stone Cutters and Carvers, ManufacturingProduction · 51-9195.03
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20592046–2060+
33k
$46,170
Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and BrazersProduction · 51-4121
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 1%Needs a human 99%
20592046–2060+
416k
$53,750
Helpers–Production WorkersProduction · 51-9198
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 7%Needs a human 93%
20582046–2060+
166k
$39,070
Fiberglass Laminators and FabricatorsProduction · 51-2051
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20592046–2060+
16k
$46,880
Sewers, HandProduction · 51-6051
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20592046–2060+
2k
$36,480
Shoe and Leather Workers and RepairersProduction · 51-6041
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20592046–2060+
7k
$37,800
Slaughterers and Meat PackersProduction · 51-3023
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20592046–2060+
70k
$40,130