Will AI replace production jobs?

107 jobs scored. On average 85% of the task time in these jobs still needs a person, and the family averages 83 out of 100 on Still needs a human, where higher is safer.

83

Average Still needs a human score, 0 to 100 ↑ safer. Will AI replace them? Nah.

107

Jobs scored in this family

85%

Average share of that still needs a person

8.6M

US workers in these jobs

How the work could shift in Production

The share of US workers in these jobs whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.

Today

61%

of US workers in this family are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)

0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)

By 2045

6%

of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)

23% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)

By 2060

6%

of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)

84% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)

Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works

Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.

Share of US workers in this family whose job would sit in each band, year by year. Updated with every release.

Show the data

Year	Largely	Mostly	Partly	A little	Nah
Today (2026)	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	38.7%	61.3%
2030	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	60.7%	39.0%
2035	0.0%	0.1%	29.0%	64.1%	6.9%
2040	0.0%	28.0%	46.5%	19.1%	6.4%
2045	22.8%	38.7%	28.5%	3.5%	6.4%
2050	46.3%	38.1%	6.1%	3.0%	6.4%
2055	67.7%	22.9%	0.0%	3.0%	6.4%
2060	84.4%	6.1%	0.0%	3.0%	6.4%

Every job in Production, ranked

How to read a row: the number is the Still needs a human score, out of 100, higher is safer; “AI replace?” is our answer to “Will AI replace this job?”; the bar is the task split: white AI does it, grey AI helps, amber needs a human.