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Will AI replace metal and plastic workers?

23 jobs scored. On average 86% of the task time in these jobs still needs a person, and the family averages 83 out of 100 on Still needs a human, where higher is safer.

83
Average Still needs a human score, 0 to 100 ↑ safer. Will AI replace them? Nah.
23
Jobs scored in this family
86%
Average share of that still needs a person
1.5M
US workers in these jobs

How the work could shift in Metal and Plastic Workers

The share of US workers in these jobs whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.

Today
100%
of US workers in this family are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
11%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
20% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
11%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
80% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)

Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works

Share of US workers in this family in each verdict band, today to 20600%25%50%75%100%2026: 100.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)100%Today2030: 59.8% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)60%2030: 40.2% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)40%20302035: 10.7% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)11%2035: 69.9% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)70%2035: 19.4% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)19%20352040: 10.7% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)11%2040: 23.3% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)23%2040: 43.5% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)44%2040: 22.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)23%20402045: 10.7% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)11%2045: 36.4% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)36%2045: 33.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)33%2045: 19.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)20%20452050: 10.7% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)11%2050: 8.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)9%2050: 38.4% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)38%2050: 42.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)42%20502055: 10.7% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)11%2055: 28.8% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)29%2055: 60.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)61%20552060: 10.7% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)11%2060: 8.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)9%2060: 80.4% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)80%2060
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Share of US workers in this family whose job would sit in each band, year by year. Updated with every release.
Show the data
YearLargelyMostlyPartlyA littleNah
Today (2026)0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20300.0%0.0%0.0%40.2%59.8%
20350.0%0.0%19.4%69.9%10.7%
20400.0%22.6%43.5%23.3%10.7%
204519.9%33.0%36.4%0.0%10.7%
205042.0%38.4%8.9%0.0%10.7%
205560.6%28.8%0.0%0.0%10.7%
206080.4%8.9%0.0%0.0%10.7%

Every job in Metal and Plastic Workers, ranked

How to read a row: the number is the Still needs a human score, out of 100, higher is safer; “AI replace?” is our answer to “Will AI replace this job?”; the bar is the task split: white AI does it, grey AI helps, amber needs a human.

MachinistsProduction · 51-4041
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 20%Needs a human 80%
20552046–2060+
287k
$58,750
Patternmakers, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4062
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 29%Needs a human 71%
20552046–2060+
1k
$58,000
Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4034
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 22%Needs a human 78%
20552046–2060+
17k
$50,620
Rolling Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4023
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 21%Needs a human 79%
20552046–2060+
25k
$50,140
Milling and Planing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4035
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 25%Needs a human 75%
20552046–2060+
12k
$52,800
Model Makers, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4061
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 23%Needs a human 77%
20552046–2060+
3k
$63,340
Layout Workers, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4192
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 21%Needs a human 79%
20562046–2060+
6k
$63,870
Tool and Die MakersProduction · 51-4111
82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 28%Needs a human 72%
20562046–2060+
57k
$64,050
Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and TendersProduction · 51-4051
82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 14%Needs a human 86%
20562046–2060+
17k
$54,430
Heat Treating Equipment Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4191
82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 16%Needs a human 84%
20562046–2060+
14k
$48,750
Forging Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4022
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 9%Needs a human 91%
20562046–2060+
9k
$49,030
Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4021
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 6%Needs a human 94%
20572046–2060+
61k
$47,720
Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4081
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 13%Needs a human 87%
20562046–2060+
125k
$47,180
Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffing Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4033
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 11%Needs a human 89%
20572046–2060+
67k
$46,550
Welding, Soldering, and Brazing Machine Setters, Operators, and TendersProduction · 51-4122
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 11%Needs a human 89%
20572046–2060+
32k
$47,920
Plating Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4193
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 10%Needs a human 90%
20572046–2060+
32k
$43,960
Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4031
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 8%Needs a human 92%
20582046–2060+
171k
$46,330
Tool Grinders, Filers, and SharpenersProduction · 51-4194
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 6%Needs a human 94%
20582046–2060+
6k
$50,060
Molding, Coremaking, and Casting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4072
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 10%Needs a human 90%
20582046–2060+
150k
$44,350
Drilling and Boring Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and PlasticProduction · 51-4032
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 7%Needs a human 93%
20582046–2060+
5k
$49,080
Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and BrazersProduction · 51-4121
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 1%Needs a human 99%
20592046–2060+
416k
$53,750
Pourers and Casters, MetalProduction · 51-4052
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20592046–2060+
5k
$51,810
Foundry Mold and CoremakersProduction · 51-4071
89↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2046–2060+
13k
$48,110