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Will AI replace protective service supervisors?

4 jobs scored. On average 65% of the task time in these jobs still needs a person, and the family averages 76 out of 100 on Still needs a human, where higher is safer.

76
Average Still needs a human score, 0 to 100 ↑ safer. Will AI replace them? A little.
4
Jobs scored in this family
65%
Average share of that still needs a person
389k
US workers in these jobs

How the work could shift in Protective Service Supervisors

The share of US workers in these jobs whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.

Today
0%
of US workers in this family are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
0%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
54% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
0%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
94% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)

Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works

Share of US workers in this family in each verdict band, today to 20600%25%50%75%100%2026: 100.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)100%Today2030: 100.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)100%20302035: 29.9% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)30%2035: 56.1% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)56%2035: 14.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)14%20352040: 6.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)6%2040: 32.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)33%2040: 44.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)44%2040: 17.4% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)17%20402045: 6.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)6%2045: 3.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)2045: 36.1% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)36%2045: 54.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)54%20452050: 6.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)6%2050: 20.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)20%2050: 74.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)74%20502055: 6.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)6%2055: 94.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)94%20552060: 6.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)6%2060: 94.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)94%2060
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Share of US workers in this family whose job would sit in each band, year by year. Updated with every release.
Show the data
YearLargelyMostlyPartlyA littleNah
Today (2026)0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
20300.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
20350.0%14.0%56.1%29.9%0.0%
204017.4%44.0%32.6%6.0%0.0%
204554.0%36.1%3.9%6.0%0.0%
205074.0%20.0%0.0%6.0%0.0%
205594.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%0.0%
206094.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%0.0%

Every job in Protective Service Supervisors, ranked

How to read a row: the number is the Still needs a human score, out of 100, higher is safer; “AI replace?” is our answer to “Will AI replace this job?”; the bar is the task split: white AI does it, grey AI helps, amber needs a human.

First-Line Supervisors of Police and DetectivesProtective Service · 33-1012
75↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 40%Needs a human 60%
20462041–2057
155k
$106,040
First-Line Supervisors of Security WorkersProtective Service · 33-1091
75↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 42%Needs a human 58%
20482042–2060+
81k
$55,940
First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention WorkersProtective Service · 33-1021
77↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 5%AI helps 28%Needs a human 67%
20492042–2060+
99k
$93,530
First-Line Supervisors of Correctional OfficersProtective Service · 33-1011
77↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 26%Needs a human 74%
20482042–2060+
53k
$77,970