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Will AI replace retail sales workers?

5 jobs scored. On average 54% of the task time in these jobs still needs a person, and the family averages 72 out of 100 on Still needs a human, where higher is safer.

72
Average Still needs a human score, 0 to 100 ↑ safer. Will AI replace them? A little.
5
Jobs scored in this family
54%
Average share of that still needs a person
7.7M
US workers in these jobs

How the work could shift in Retail Sales Workers

The share of US workers in these jobs whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.

Today
0%
of US workers in this family are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
0%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
72% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
0%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
96% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)

Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works

Share of US workers in this family in each verdict band, today to 20600%25%50%75%100%2026: 100.0% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)100%Today2030: 61.7% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)62%2030: 38.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)38%20302035: 13.2% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)13%2035: 30.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)31%2035: 34.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)34%2035: 21.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)22%20352040: 4.4% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2040: 13.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)14%2040: 25.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)26%2040: 56.1% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)56%20402045: 4.4% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2045: 23.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)24%2045: 71.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)72%20452050: 4.4% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2050: 9.5% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)10%2050: 86.1% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)86%20502055: 4.4% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2055: 95.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)96%20552060: 4.4% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2060: 95.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)96%2060
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Share of US workers in this family whose job would sit in each band, year by year. Updated with every release.
Show the data
YearLargelyMostlyPartlyA littleNah
Today (2026)0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
20300.0%0.0%38.3%61.7%0.0%
203521.7%34.3%30.7%13.2%0.0%
204056.1%25.6%13.9%4.4%0.0%
204571.7%23.9%0.0%4.4%0.0%
205086.1%9.5%0.0%4.4%0.0%
205595.6%0.0%0.0%4.4%0.0%
206095.6%0.0%0.0%4.4%0.0%

Every job in Retail Sales Workers, ranked

How to read a row: the number is the Still needs a human score, out of 100, higher is safer; “AI replace?” is our answer to “Will AI replace this job?”; the bar is the task split: white AI does it, grey AI helps, amber needs a human.

Counter and Rental ClerksSales and Related · 41-2021
65↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 25%AI helps 40%Needs a human 35%
20382035–2049
401k
$41,300
Retail SalespersonsSales and Related · 41-2031
69↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 10%AI helps 43%Needs a human 47%
20402035–2054
3.9M
$35,410
CashiersSales and Related · 41-2011
74↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 8%AI helps 28%Needs a human 64%
20432036–2060+
3.1M
$32,880
Parts SalespersonsSales and Related · 41-2022
74↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 46%Needs a human 54%
20432036–2060+
270k
$38,630
Gambling Change Persons and Booth CashiersSales and Related · 41-2012
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 31%Needs a human 69%
20452036–2060+
22k
$36,220