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Will AI replace material moving workers?

16 jobs scored. On average 88% of the task time in these jobs still needs a person, and the family averages 84 out of 100 on Still needs a human, where higher is safer.

84
Average Still needs a human score, 0 to 100 ↑ safer. Will AI replace them? Nah.
16
Jobs scored in this family
88%
Average share of that still needs a person
10.8M
US workers in these jobs

How the work could shift in Material Moving Workers

The share of US workers in these jobs whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.

Today
64%
of US workers in this family are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
6%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
26% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
6%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
83% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)

Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works

Share of US workers in this family in each verdict band, today to 20600%25%50%75%100%2026: 63.7% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)64%2026: 36.3% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)36%Today2030: 48.9% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)49%2030: 51.1% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)51%20302035: 9.3% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)9%2035: 61.3% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)61%2035: 29.5% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)30%20352040: 6.4% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)6%2040: 23.1% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)23%2040: 39.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)40%2040: 26.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)27%2040: 4.1% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)20402045: 6.4% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)6%2045: 3.6% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2045: 26.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)27%2045: 37.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)38%2045: 25.9% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)26%20452050: 6.4% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)6%2050: 3.6% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2050: 7.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)7%2050: 33.5% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)34%2050: 49.5% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)50%20502055: 6.4% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)6%2055: 3.6% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2055: 16.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)17%2055: 73.4% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)73%20552060: 6.4% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)6%2060: 3.6% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2060: 7.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)7%2060: 83.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)83%2060
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Share of US workers in this family whose job would sit in each band, year by year. Updated with every release.
Show the data
YearLargelyMostlyPartlyA littleNah
Today (2026)0.0%0.0%0.0%36.3%63.7%
20300.0%0.0%0.0%51.1%48.9%
20350.0%0.0%29.5%61.3%9.3%
20404.1%26.6%39.7%23.1%6.4%
204525.9%37.6%26.6%3.6%6.4%
205049.5%33.5%7.0%3.6%6.4%
205573.4%16.6%0.0%3.6%6.4%
206083.0%7.0%0.0%3.6%6.4%

Every job in Material Moving Workers, ranked

How to read a row: the number is the Still needs a human score, out of 100, higher is safer; “AI replace?” is our answer to “Will AI replace this job?”; the bar is the task split: white AI does it, grey AI helps, amber needs a human.

Stockers and Order FillersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7065
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 29%Needs a human 71%
20522044–2060+
2.8M
$37,330
Gas Compressor and Gas Pumping Station OperatorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7071
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 36%Needs a human 64%
20532044–2060+
4k
$77,320
Pump Operators, Except Wellhead PumpersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7072
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 24%Needs a human 76%
20532044–2060+
10k
$61,770
Conveyor Operators and TendersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7011
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 26%Needs a human 74%
20542044–2060+
23k
$42,420
Refuse and Recyclable Material CollectorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7081
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 18%Needs a human 82%
20542044–2060+
147k
$49,690
Crane and Tower OperatorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7021
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 17%Needs a human 83%
20552044–2060+
43k
$68,080
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, HandTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7062
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 19%Needs a human 81%
20552044–2060+
3M
$40,240
Wellhead PumpersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7073
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 9%Needs a human 91%
20552044–2060+
18k
$69,960
Tank Car, Truck, and Ship LoadersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7121
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 6%Needs a human 94%
20552044–2060+
11k
$58,870
Machine Feeders and OffbearersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7063
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 9%Needs a human 91%
20562044–2060+
42k
$41,220
Packers and Packagers, HandTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7064
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20562044–2060+
560k
$36,280
Cleaners of Vehicles and EquipmentTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7061
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20572044–2060+
380k
$35,830
Hoist and Winch OperatorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7041
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20572044–2060+
3k
$56,450
Recycling and Reclamation WorkersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7062.04
88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20582044–2060+
3M
$40,240
Industrial Truck and Tractor OperatorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7051
88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20582044–2060+
774k
$46,420
Dredge OperatorsTransportation and Material Moving · 53-7031
89↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20582044–2060+
1k
$49,640