Will AI replace motor vehicle operators?
8 jobs scored. On average 74% of the task time in these jobs still needs a person, and the family averages 80 out of 100 on Still needs a human, where higher is safer.
80
Average Still needs a human score, 0 to 100 ↑ safer. Will AI replace them? Nah.
8
Jobs scored in this family
74%
Average share of Task timeHow a job’s working hours divide between its tasks. Tasks that matter more and come up more often get a bigger share.More in the glossary that still needs a person
4.3M
US workers in these jobs
How the work could shift in Motor Vehicle Operators
The share of US workers in these jobs whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.
Today
42%
of US workers in this family are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
4%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
31% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
4%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
90% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Show the data
| Year | Largely | Mostly | Partly | A little | Nah |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today (2026) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 2030 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 95.6% | 4.4% |
| 2035 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.8% | 55.0% | 4.2% |
| 2040 | 1.1% | 39.4% | 49.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% |
| 2045 | 31.0% | 46.6% | 12.4% | 5.8% | 4.2% |
| 2050 | 60.4% | 29.6% | 0.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% |
| 2055 | 87.6% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% |
| 2060 | 90.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% |
Every job in Motor Vehicle Operators, ranked
Bus Drivers, Transit and IntercityTransportation and Material Moving · 53-3052
76↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 8%AI helps 34%Needs a human 58%
20502043–2060+
159k
$59,050
Taxi DriversTransportation and Material Moving · 53-3054
77↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 6%AI helps 25%Needs a human 69%
20512043–2060+
41k
$42,100
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck DriversTransportation and Material Moving · 53-3032
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 31%Needs a human 69%
20522044–2060+
2.1M
$58,640
Shuttle Drivers and ChauffeursTransportation and Material Moving · 53-3053
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 25%Needs a human 75%
20522043–2060+
249k
$37,290
Driver/Sales WorkersTransportation and Material Moving · 53-3031
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 35%Needs a human 65%
20522044–2060+
409k
$38,770
Light Truck DriversTransportation and Material Moving · 53-3033
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 23%Needs a human 77%
20532044–2060+
983k
$44,860
Bus Drivers, SchoolTransportation and Material Moving · 53-3051
80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 24%Needs a human 76%
20522044–2060+
403k
$47,920
Ambulance Drivers and Attendants, Except Emergency Medical TechniciansTransportation and Material Moving · 53-3011
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
20572044–2060+
13k
$35,450