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Will AI replace rail transportation workers?

5 jobs scored. On average 83% of the task time in these jobs still needs a person, and the family averages 82 out of 100 on Still needs a human, where higher is safer.

82
Average Still needs a human score, 0 to 100 ↑ safer. Will AI replace them? Nah.
5
Jobs scored in this family
83%
Average share of that still needs a person
106k
US workers in these jobs

How the work could shift in Rail Transportation Workers

The share of US workers in these jobs whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.

Today
47%
of US workers in this family are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
5%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
39% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
5%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
89% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)

Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works

Share of US workers in this family in each verdict band, today to 20600%25%50%75%100%2026: 46.8% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)47%2026: 53.2% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)53%Today2030: 29.7% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)30%2030: 70.3% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)70%20302035: 4.7% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2035: 51.5% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)52%2035: 43.8% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)44%20352040: 4.7% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2040: 12.3% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)12%2040: 38.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)38%2040: 39.5% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)40%2040: 5.5% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)6%20402045: 4.7% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2045: 5.3% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2045: 17.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)17%2045: 34.5% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)35%2045: 38.5% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)39%20452050: 4.7% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2050: 5.3% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2050: 1.2% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)2050: 27.2% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)27%2050: 61.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)62%20502055: 4.7% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2055: 5.3% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2055: 7.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)7%2055: 83.0% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)83%20552060: 4.7% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)2060: 5.3% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2060: 1.2% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)2060: 88.8% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)89%2060
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Share of US workers in this family whose job would sit in each band, year by year. Updated with every release.
Show the data
YearLargelyMostlyPartlyA littleNah
Today (2026)0.0%0.0%0.0%53.2%46.8%
20300.0%0.0%0.0%70.3%29.7%
20350.0%0.0%43.8%51.5%4.7%
20405.5%39.5%38.0%12.3%4.7%
204538.5%34.5%17.0%5.3%4.7%
205061.7%27.2%1.2%5.3%4.7%
205583.0%7.0%0.0%5.3%4.7%
206088.8%1.2%0.0%5.3%4.7%

Every job in Rail Transportation Workers, ranked

How to read a row: the number is the Still needs a human score, out of 100, higher is safer; “AI replace?” is our answer to “Will AI replace this job?”; the bar is the task split: white AI does it, grey AI helps, amber needs a human.