Key points
- Skilled trades are among the jobs today’s AI touches least, because the core work is physical, varied and done on site.
- The official US outlook for several trades is growth, with decent pay and no college degree required.
- AI is even adding demand for some trades: data centers need electricity.
- Trades still use AI for quotes, scheduling, manuals and diagnostics. Learning those tools is a plus.
- Most routes in are through apprenticeships or short training programs, so you can earn while you learn.
The three biggest trades, scored
Here is where electricians, plumbers and HVAC technicians sit on our Still needs a humanOur headline score for each job, from 0 to 100. Higher is safer: AI can do less of the work, or does it less well.It combines how much of the job AI can do with how well AI does it compared with a qualified person, and it is always shown beside those answers.How the score works · More in the glossary scale, which runs from 0 to 100 (higher is safer). Each card shows the share of the job’s Task timeHow a job’s working hours divide between its tasks. Tasks that matter more and come up more often get a bigger share.More in the glossary that still needs a person and the range of years in which the work could be largely automated.
For comparison, customer service representatives score 51 out of 100 (higher is safer). Will AI replace them? Partly. The difference is almost entirely about hands: AI can answer a call, but it cannot run cable through a wall.
Why AI struggles with trade work
A plumber’s day might include diagnosing a leak behind a wall, cutting and fitting pipe in a tight space, explaining options to a worried homeowner and making sure the work passes inspection. Every job site is different.
That is exactly the kind of work AI and robots find hardest:
- It is physical. AI chat assistants cannot touch anything. Robots work well in factories, not in crawl spaces and attics. On our cards, 78% of an electrician’s task time still needs a person.
- It is varied. No two houses, wiring jobs or HVAC systems are quite the same.
- It carries responsibility. Trades are usually licensed, and the work must meet code. Someone has to sign off and be accountable.
- Customers want a person. People want to talk to the person working in their home.
Research on real AI use backs this up. Microsoft Research found the jobs with the lowest AI applicability “include occupations that require physically working with people, operating machinery, and other manual labor.” Roofers, who score 86 out of 100 on our Still needs a human scale (higher is safer), are among the lowest-scoring occupations in its data.
The official outlook
The US BLSThe Bureau of Labor Statistics: the US government’s official source for how many people do each job, what they earn, and job outlook.bls.gov · More in the glossary (BLS) publishes 10-year projections for every occupation. Here is how eight trades look for 2025–35, with our score beside each. The table updates itself when either changes.
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Median pay | Projected change, 2025–35 | Openings a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ElectriciansConstruction and Extraction | 81↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2047–2060+ | $63,190 | +9.2% | 72,700 |
| 2 | Plumbers, Pipefitters, and SteamfittersConstruction and Extraction | 82↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2047–2060+ | $63,800 | +6.8% | 42,000 |
| 3 | Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and InstallersInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair | 82↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | $61,010 | +10.9% | 40,600 |
| 4 | Wind Turbine Service TechniciansInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair | 81↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | $64,120 | +29.5% | 1,500 |
| 5 | Solar Photovoltaic InstallersConstruction and Extraction | 77↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2047–2060+ | $53,140 | +36.5% | 4,200 |
| 6 | RoofersConstruction and Extraction | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2048–2060+ | $55,440 | +5.3% | 12,000 |
| 7 | CarpentersConstruction and Extraction | 83↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2048–2060+ | $60,580 | +3.9% | 62,800 |
| 8 | Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and BrazersProduction | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | $53,750 | +2.4% | 40,300 |
Source: BLS Employment ProjectionsThe Bureau of Labor Statistics’ official ten-year outlook for each job, now 2025 to 2035: expected growth or decline, and openings each year.More in the glossary 2025–35 and OEWSOccupational Employment and Wage Statistics: the government survey that counts how many people do each job, and their pay, by state.Run by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.More in the glossary, as loaded in our latest release.
The overall economy is projected to grow 3.5% over the same period, so most of these trades are expected to grow faster. A note on the smaller trades: wind turbine and solar installer jobs grow fast from a small base, so far fewer openings come up each year than for electricians or plumbers.
AI is creating demand for some trades
AI runs in data centers, and data centers use a lot of electricity. The BLS says this directly in its outlook for electricians: “The increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and demand for data centers to support this growth are expected to contribute to rising electricity demand.”
Its 2025–35 projections also expect utilities job growth to come from “electric power generation, transmission, and distribution due to increasing demand for electricity, including artificial intelligence (AI) power demands.”
So while AI is expected to reduce demand for some office jobs, it is helping create demand for the people who build and maintain the power systems it runs on.
How AI is changing trade work anyway
Safe from replacement does not mean untouched. Our task breakdown for electricians puts 22% of their task time in the “AI helps” column. Tradespeople are starting to use AI for:
- Quotes and invoices. Drafting estimates from photos and notes.
- Scheduling and admin. Booking jobs, sending reminders, chasing payments.
- Code and manuals. Looking up building codes, wiring diagrams and manufacturer instructions quickly.
- Diagnostics. Smart systems and diagnostic tools that point to likely faults.
- Customer messages. Clear explanations and follow-ups.
For a small business owner, these can save hours a week. Learning them makes you more efficient, not less needed.
Things to weigh before choosing a trade
Trades are not easy jobs, and it is worth being honest about that:
- Physical demands. The work can be hard on your body over decades.
- Training time. Apprenticeships often take several years.
- Work patterns. Construction can be seasonal or tied to the economy.
- Licensing. Rules differ by state, and you may need exams to progress.
Many people find the trade-off worth it: steady demand, earning while training, no student debt and the option to run your own business.
How to get started
- Look up the trade on our rankings and on the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook for pay, training and outlook.
- Talk to people in the trade. Ask what a typical week is like.
- Find an apprenticeship. Unions, trade associations and employers run programs. Community colleges offer pre-apprenticeship and certificate courses.
- Check your state’s licensing rules.
- Learn the digital side early. Estimating software, diagnostic tools and AI assistants for admin will make you more valuable.
Not sure where you stand? Take the quiz for a personal score, or compare electricians and plumbers side by side.
If you are switching from an office job
Moving into a trade mid-career is possible. Your existing skills, such as customer service, organization, budgeting or tech, can help, especially if you want to run your own business later. Read Is it worth retraining? for an honest look at career changes.
FAQ
Will AI replace electricians?
Not on any timeline our model can see clearly. Electricians score 81 out of 100 on Still needs a human (higher is safer), and the work could be largely automated 2047–2060+ at the earliest in our scenarios, because almost all of it is hands-on and licensed.
Are plumbers safer from AI than electricians?
Slightly, on our scores: Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters 82/100 ↑ safer (verdict: Nah.) vs Electricians 81/100 ↑ safer (verdict: Nah.) (compare). The gap is small, and both depend far more on physical work than on anything AI can do.
Do trades need a college degree?
Usually not. Most start with a high school diploma and an apprenticeship or a short postsecondary program; see the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook for each trade.
Can robots do trade work?
Robots handle repetitive building tasks in controlled settings, but varied on-site work in homes is far harder. See humanoid robots and physical jobs.
Sources
- Tomlinson et al., “Working with AI”, Microsoft Research, arXiv 2507.07935, revised December 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.07935
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook: Electricians; Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters; Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Employment Projections 2025–2035”, 27 August 2026. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.nr0.htm