Key points
- Most people do not need a full career change. Adapting within your field is often the better first move.
- On average, job training programs in the US have produced small gains. Some sector-focused programs have done much better.
- The best programs train for specific jobs that employers are hiring for, and they select applicants carefully.
- Education still pays: median earnings rise and unemployment falls with each level of education.
- Before retraining, check the target job’s outlook, its AI exposure and what the training really costs you.
First: do you need to retrain at all?
If AI is changing your job, you have three options, roughly in order of cost and risk:
- Adapt in place. Learn the AI tools in your field and shift toward the tasks that need you. See How to future-proof your career against AI.
- Move sideways. Use most of your existing skills in a related job that is less exposed.
- Retrain for a different career. New skills, often new qualifications, sometimes a pay cut while you start again.
Option 3 is the biggest bet. It is the right one for some people, but it helps to know what the evidence says about how retraining usually goes.
What the evidence says about retraining programs
In August 2026, David Roodman and Maxim Massenkoff published a review of worker retraining for Anthropic. It draws on “146 impact estimates from 56 randomized trials conducted in the United States from 1973 to the present.” Randomized trials are the strongest kind of evidence, because they compare people who got the training with similar people who did not.
The average program helps a little
The review found that programs “on average increased employment by 1.7 percentage points, compared to a baseline employment rate of 63%,” and “increase earnings by $800 per year on average.” Typical programs “run six months and cost roughly $13,000 per person.”
That is a modest gain. It does not mean training is useless. It means the average program is not a reliable fix on its own.
Big government programs have struggled
The review is blunt: “Scaled programs have also been lackluster.” It notes that an evaluation of one large federal program’s successor “and the youth-targeted Job Corps found essentially no impact.”
Sector programs have done much better
The bright spot is sector-based programs: training tied closely to specific, in-demand jobs, with employers involved. The review found that “a few programs have lifted pay by $5–10,000 per year.” It names “Year Up (Fein and Dastrup 2022) and Per Scholas” as standouts.
But there are catches:
- These programs are selective. They “filter out >80% of applicants,” and Per Scholas and others “take about 1 in 5 applicants.”
- Results do not always travel. The review notes that one program “failed at every site,” another’s “new sites did worse than the original,” and “only Year Up showed consistent gains.”
The authors conclude: “it seems doubtful that we currently have programs capable of meeting the moment.”
What this means for you
The best retraining tends to be:
- specific: training for a named job, not general skills,
- linked to employers: with hiring partners, work placements or apprenticeships,
- demanding: programs that select carefully often get better results, and
- proven: with published outcomes you can check.
Education still pays
Over a whole career, more education is still linked to higher pay and lower unemployment. Here are the BLS figures for 2025, for people aged 25 and over:
| Education | Median weekly earnings | Unemployment rate |
|---|---|---|
| Doctoral degree | $2,307 | 1.8% |
| Professional degree | $2,294 | 1.9% |
| Master’s degree | $1,876 | 2.6% |
| Bachelor’s degree | $1,578 | 2.8% |
| Associate’s degree | $1,135 | 3.0% |
| Some college, no degree | $1,062 | 3.8% |
| High school diploma | $966 | 4.3% |
| Less than high school | $770 | 6.1% |
| All workers | $1,268 | 3.4% |
Source: BLS, “Education pays”. Earnings are for full-time wage and salary workers. The BLS notes the 2025 figures average 11 months because October data was not collected, and that the table does “not include apprenticeships or on-the-job training.”
These are averages across everyone, not a promise for any one person or course.
How to decide
1. Check the target job, not just your current one
Look up the job you want to move into on NeedsAHuman. How much of it can AI already do? Is it growing? Retraining into a job that is just as exposed as your current one is not much of a move.
2. Count the full cost
Add up fees, time out of work, lost earnings while training and the pay you would likely start at. Compare that with what you earn now and what you might earn in five years.
3. Look for proof
Ask any program for its outcomes: how many people finish, how many get jobs in the field, and at what pay. Good programs publish this. Be wary of those that do not.
4. Prefer earn-while-you-learn routes
Apprenticeships and employer-sponsored training cut the financial risk. See AI and trades careers.
5. Try before you commit
Shadow someone, take a short introductory course or do a small project in the new field before you leave your job.
6. Use what you have
Your experience counts. A move that uses most of your current skills is usually faster and cheaper than starting from zero. Each job page on NeedsAHuman lists related jobs that score safer.
Signs retraining may be worth it
- Your job’s core tasks are largely within AI’s reach, and hiring in your field is falling.
- You have found a specific target job that is growing and less exposed.
- You have found a program with good, published outcomes and employer links.
- You can afford the time, or the program lets you earn while you learn.
Signs to wait or adapt instead
- Your job is changing, but most of your tasks still need a person.
- You are not sure what you would retrain for.
- The program cannot show you its results.
- The cost would put you under serious financial strain.
Sources
- David Roodman and Maxim Massenkoff, An evidence review of worker retraining, Anthropic, 12 August 2026. https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/4ef47f859bc67be739a14f5d40b43927eecacdb6/WorkerRetraining.pdf
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Unemployment rates and earnings by educational attainment, 2025”. https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/unemployment-earnings-education.htm