Jobs in administrative, support, and waste services have an average Still needs a human score of 75.7 out of 100 (higher is safer), 1.7 points above the average for all jobs of 74.0 and 14th of 37 among the sectors (1st is least exposed). The largest job here is janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners (945,000 workers, 86/100 ↑ safer), and of the jobs more common here than across the economy, customer service representatives is the most exposed (51/100 ↑ safer).
75.7/100↑ safer
9.7%
20.8%
+0.9%
How the work here could shift
The share of workers in this sector whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.
Today
50%
of workers in this sector are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
11%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
51% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
11%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
85% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Show the data
| Year | Largely | Mostly | Partly | A little | Nah |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today (2026) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.3% | 40.9% | 49.7% |
| 2030 | 0.0% | 4.0% | 25.3% | 39.1% | 31.6% |
| 2035 | 13.8% | 16.9% | 25.2% | 32.1% | 12.0% |
| 2040 | 30.4% | 24.4% | 23.9% | 9.7% | 11.4% |
| 2045 | 51.0% | 22.5% | 13.6% | 1.4% | 11.4% |
| 2050 | 65.1% | 19.4% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 11.4% |
| 2055 | 78.2% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 11.4% |
| 2060 | 84.5% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 11.4% |
The largest jobs in administrative, support, and waste services
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 945,300 |
| 2 | Security Guards | 80↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2042–2060+ | 784,400 |
| 3 | Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 577,200 |
| 4 | Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2044–2060+ | 490,500 |
| 5 | Customer Service Representatives | 51↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2041 | 374,700 |
| 6 | General and Operations Managers | 72↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2051 | 252,000 |
| 7 | Office Clerks, General | 65↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2053 | 202,200 |
| 8 | Team Assemblers | 79↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2046–2060+ | 173,800 |
| 9 | Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2042 | 161,500 |
| 10 | Human Resources Specialists | 61↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2045 | 158,000 |
Common jobs here that AI can do most of
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Customer Service Representatives | 51↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2041 | 374,700 |
| 2 | Telemarketers | 53↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2042 | 39,700 |
| 3 | Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2034–2042 | 46,600 |
| 4 | Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2042 | 161,500 |
| 5 | Travel Agents | 55↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2043 | 45,200 |
| 6 | Medical Records Specialists | 56↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2039–2049 | 16,700 |
| 7 | Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 57↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2044 | 16,900 |
| 8 | Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers | 58↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2033–2042 | 10,700 |
| 9 | Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks | 58↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2035–2045 | 11,500 |
| 10 | Computer Systems Analysts | 59↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2033–2042 | 23,400 |
Common jobs here that most need a human
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 71,400 |
| 2 | Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 577,200 |
| 3 | Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2047–2060+ | 141,600 |
| 4 | Construction Laborers | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2048–2060+ | 70,000 |
| 5 | Laundry and Dry-Cleaning Workers | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 11,900 |
| 6 | Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 33,700 |
| 7 | Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 20,200 |
| 8 | Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 17,900 |
| 9 | Helpers--Production Workers | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 17,500 |
| 10 | Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 945,300 |
Related sectors: Call centers and business support
How this is worked out
- The average weights every job's Still needs a human score by how many people do it in this sector, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' industry employment data. Jobs cover 97.0% of the sector's employment.
- Job scores are national: an accountant in retail scores the same as an accountant anywhere. The sector figure reflects its mix of jobs, not how its employers use AI; the Census figure shows that.