Jobs in manufacturing have an average Still needs a human score of 76.6 out of 100 (higher is safer), 2.6 points above the average for all jobs of 74.0 and 12th of 37 among the sectors (1st is least exposed). The largest job here is team assemblers (1,070,000 workers, 79/100 ↑ safer), and of the jobs more common here than across the economy, sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products is the most exposed (57/100 ↑ safer).
76.6/100↑ safer
4.4%
20.4%
+0.6%
How the work here could shift
The share of workers in this sector whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.
Today
41%
of workers in this sector are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
5%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
45% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
5%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
89% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Show the data
| Year | Largely | Mostly | Partly | A little | Nah |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today (2026) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.4% | 54.3% | 41.3% |
| 2030 | 0.0% | 1.5% | 20.0% | 51.5% | 27.0% |
| 2035 | 9.2% | 13.9% | 29.2% | 42.5% | 5.1% |
| 2040 | 23.1% | 27.2% | 32.1% | 13.1% | 4.6% |
| 2045 | 45.3% | 29.5% | 18.2% | 2.5% | 4.6% |
| 2050 | 63.8% | 25.5% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 4.6% |
| 2055 | 79.2% | 14.0% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 4.6% |
| 2060 | 89.3% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 4.6% |
The largest jobs in manufacturing
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Assemblers | 79↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2046–2060+ | 1,070,200 |
| 2 | First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | 70↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2044–2059 | 490,500 |
| 3 | Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2044–2060+ | 399,600 |
| 4 | Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers | 78↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2046–2060+ | 382,700 |
| 5 | Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 299,900 |
| 6 | Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 273,800 |
| 7 | General and Operations Managers | 72↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2051 | 248,500 |
| 8 | Industrial Engineers | 69↑ saferAI replace? A little.workers of 4 related jobs | D | 2036–2049 | 248,500 |
| 9 | Machinists | 80↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 241,300 |
| 10 | Industrial Machinery Mechanics | 77↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2045–2060+ | 232,500 |
Common jobs here that AI can do most of
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Customer Service Representatives | 51↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2041 | 127,300 |
| 2 | Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2034–2042 | 53,100 |
| 3 | Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2042 | 15,800 |
| 4 | Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 57↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2044 | 227,800 |
| 5 | Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers | 58↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2033–2042 | 16,200 |
| 6 | Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products | 59↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2034–2044 | 31,200 |
| 7 | Computer Systems Analysts | 59↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2033–2042 | 23,900 |
| 8 | Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 60↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2046 | 91,400 |
| 9 | Human Resources Specialists | 61↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2045 | 67,000 |
| 10 | Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 61↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2047 | 67,700 |
Common jobs here that most need a human
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 174,000 |
| 2 | Tire Builders | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 19,300 |
| 3 | Construction Laborers | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2048–2060+ | 16,400 |
| 4 | Millwrights | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 14,600 |
| 5 | Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 299,900 |
| 6 | Slaughterers and Meat Packers | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 63,600 |
| 7 | Fiberglass Laminators and Fabricators | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 15,000 |
| 8 | Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 273,800 |
| 9 | Helpers--Production Workers | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 117,300 |
| 10 | Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 36,600 |
How this is worked out
- The average weights every job's Still needs a human score by how many people do it in this sector, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' industry employment data. Jobs cover 98.2% of the sector's employment.
- Job scores are national: an accountant in retail scores the same as an accountant anywhere. The sector figure reflects its mix of jobs, not how its employers use AI; the Census figure shows that.