Jobs in Arizona have an average Still needs a human score of 73.8 out of 100 (higher is safer), close to the US average and tied for 37th of 51 among the states and DC (1st is least exposed). The largest job here is general and operations managers (110,000 workers, 72/100 ↑ safer), and of the jobs more common here than across the economy, customer service representatives is the most exposed (51/100 ↑ safer).
How the work in Arizona could shift
The share of workers in the state whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.
Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works
Show the data
| Year | Largely | Mostly | Partly | A little | Nah |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today (2026) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 60.2% | 32.9% |
| 2030 | 0.0% | 2.8% | 30.4% | 49.7% | 17.1% |
| 2035 | 15.6% | 21.0% | 29.3% | 28.3% | 5.8% |
| 2040 | 36.6% | 27.5% | 23.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% |
| 2045 | 59.2% | 23.6% | 9.8% | 2.0% | 5.5% |
| 2050 | 74.3% | 16.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 5.5% |
| 2055 | 86.6% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 5.5% |
| 2060 | 91.1% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 5.5% |
The largest jobs in Arizona
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | General and Operations Managers | 72↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2051 | 110,480 |
| 2 | Retail Salespersons | 69↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2054 | 93,920 |
| 3 | Customer Service Representatives | 51↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2041 | 87,020 |
| 4 | Fast Food and Counter Workers | 82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2044–2060+ | 77,210 |
| 5 | Registered Nurses | 80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.workers of 5 related jobs | D | 2042–2060+ | 73,150 |
| 6 | Cashiers | 74↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2060+ | 72,570 |
| 7 | Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2044–2060+ | 71,090 |
| 8 | Stockers and Order Fillers | 79↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2044–2060+ | 57,510 |
| 9 | Waiters and Waitresses | 79↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2044–2060+ | 55,950 |
| 10 | Office Clerks, General | 65↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2053 | 52,710 |
Common jobs here that AI can do most of
Jobs with at least 3,240 workers in the state, lowest score first.
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Customer Service Representatives | 51↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2041 | 87,020 |
| 2 | Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2034–2042 | 15,850 |
| 3 | Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2042 | 26,340 |
| 4 | Medical Records Specialists | 56↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2039–2049 | 3,750 |
| 5 | Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 57↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2044 | 19,400 |
| 6 | Securities, Commodities, and Financial Services Sales Agents | 58↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2043 | 14,600 |
| 7 | Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers | 58↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2033–2042 | 3,890 |
| 8 | Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks | 58↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2035–2045 | 8,350 |
| 9 | Computer Systems Analysts | 59↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2033–2042 | 11,330 |
| 10 | Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products | 59↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2034–2044 | 8,860 |
Common jobs here that most need a human
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 12,340 |
| 2 | Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 22,450 |
| 3 | Dishwashers | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 10,120 |
| 4 | Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2047–2060+ | 21,180 |
| 5 | Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2048–2060+ | 7,520 |
| 6 | Construction Laborers | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2048–2060+ | 37,630 |
| 7 | Laundry and Dry-Cleaning Workers | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 4,290 |
| 8 | Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 7,090 |
| 9 | Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 7,270 |
| 10 | Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 6,260 |
The job most over-represented in Arizona compared with the US as a whole is Real Estate Brokers (4.4 times its share of US jobs), with a score of 64.
Neighboring states: California, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah
How this is worked out
- The average weights every job's Still needs a human score by how many people do it in the state, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment survey (May 2025). Jobs cover 99.0% of the state's employment.
- Job scores are national: a state's accountants score the same as anyone else's. The state figure reflects its mix of jobs, not how its employers use AI.
- Where BLS hides a figure for a small job, the state's missing workers are shared out by national patterns; those estimates count in the average but never put a job on a list.