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Will AI replace construction trades workers?

31 jobs scored. On average 91% of the task time in these jobs still needs a person, and the family averages 85 out of 100 on Still needs a human, where higher is safer.

85
Average Still needs a human score, 0 to 100 ↑ safer. Will AI replace them? Nah.
31
Jobs scored in this family
91%
Average share of that still needs a person
5.2M
US workers in these jobs

How the work could shift in Construction Trades Workers

The share of US workers in these jobs whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.

Today
99%
of US workers in this family are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
39%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
12% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
39%
of US workers in this family would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
55% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)

Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works

Share of US workers in this family in each verdict band, today to 20600%25%50%75%100%2026: 98.8% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)99%2026: 1.2% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)Today2030: 73.7% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)74%2030: 26.3% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)26%20302035: 39.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)39%2035: 52.3% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)52%2035: 8.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)9%20352040: 39.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)39%2040: 19.1% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)19%2040: 27.8% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)28%2040: 14.1% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)14%20402045: 39.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)39%2045: 0.1% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2045: 25.4% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)25%2045: 23.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)23%2045: 12.2% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)12%20452050: 39.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)39%2050: 0.1% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2050: 6.1% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could partly do (Partly.)6%2050: 28.1% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)28%2050: 26.7% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)27%20502055: 39.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)39%2055: 0.1% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2055: 21.3% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)21%2055: 39.6% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)40%20552060: 39.0% of US workers in this family in jobs that mostly need a person (Nah.)39%2060: 0.1% of US workers in this family in jobs where AI could do a little of the work (A little.)2060: 6.1% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could mostly do (Mostly.)6%2060: 54.8% of US workers in this family in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)55%2060
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Share of US workers in this family whose job would sit in each band, year by year. Updated with every release.
Show the data
YearLargelyMostlyPartlyA littleNah
Today (2026)0.0%0.0%0.0%1.2%98.8%
20300.0%0.0%0.0%26.3%73.7%
20350.0%0.0%8.7%52.3%39.0%
20400.0%14.1%27.8%19.1%39.0%
204512.2%23.3%25.4%0.1%39.0%
205026.7%28.1%6.1%0.1%39.0%
205539.6%21.3%0.0%0.1%39.0%
206054.8%6.1%0.0%0.1%39.0%

Every job in Construction Trades Workers, ranked

How to read a row: the number is the Still needs a human score, out of 100, higher is safer; “AI replace?” is our answer to “Will AI replace this job?”; the bar is the task split: white AI does it, grey AI helps, amber needs a human.

Solar Photovoltaic InstallersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2231
77↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 0%AI helps 34%Needs a human 66%
20552047–2060+
31k
$53,140
Insulation Workers, MechanicalConstruction and Extraction · 47-2132
79↑ saferAI replace? A little.
AI does 9%AI helps 24%Needs a human 67%
20552047–2060+
26k
$58,340
ElectriciansConstruction and Extraction · 47-2111
81↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 22%Needs a human 78%
20572047–2060+
757k
$63,190
Plumbers, Pipefitters, and SteamfittersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2152
82↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 4%AI helps 15%Needs a human 81%
20582047–2060+
466k
$63,800
Sheet Metal WorkersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2211
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 16%Needs a human 84%
20582048–2060+
120k
$61,800
CarpentersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2031
83↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 23%Needs a human 77%
20582048–2060+
670k
$60,580
Tile and Stone SettersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2044
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 13%Needs a human 87%
20592048–2060+
36k
$55,690
Painters, Construction and MaintenanceConstruction and Extraction · 47-2141
84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 14%Needs a human 86%
20592048–2060+
225k
$49,400
Brickmasons and BlockmasonsConstruction and Extraction · 47-2021
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 8%Needs a human 92%
20592047–2060+
53k
$62,120
Solar Thermal Installers and TechniciansConstruction and Extraction · 47-2152.04
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 10%Needs a human 90%
20592048–2060+
466k
$63,800
Carpet InstallersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2041
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 7%Needs a human 93%
20602048–2060+
14k
$50,340
Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment OperatorsConstruction and Extraction · 47-2073
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 4%Needs a human 96%
20602048–2060+
478k
$59,850
Reinforcing Iron and Rebar WorkersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2171
85↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 13%Needs a human 87%
20602048–2060+
14k
$58,970
Structural Iron and Steel WorkersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2221
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 8%AI helps 0%Needs a human 92%
20602048–2060+
68k
$62,780
GlaziersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2121
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 9%Needs a human 91%
20602048–2060+
58k
$57,080
Plasterers and Stucco MasonsConstruction and Extraction · 47-2161
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 7%Needs a human 93%
2048–2060+
19k
$57,660
PaperhangersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2142
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2047–2060+
2k
$52,140
BoilermakersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2011
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 8%Needs a human 92%
2048–2060+
10k
$76,410
Drywall and Ceiling Tile InstallersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2081
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 7%Needs a human 93%
2048–2060+
83k
$58,930
RoofersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2181
86↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 6%AI helps 0%Needs a human 94%
2048–2060+
135k
$55,440
Insulation Workers, Floor, Ceiling, and WallConstruction and Extraction · 47-2131
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
44k
$49,120
Construction LaborersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2061
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 4%Needs a human 96%
2048–2060+
1.1M
$47,120
TapersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2082
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
13k
$68,270
Terrazzo Workers and FinishersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2053
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
1k
$76,170
PipelayersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2151
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
33k
$49,000
Floor Layers, Except Carpet, Wood, and Hard TilesConstruction and Extraction · 47-2042
87↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
24k
$56,460
Cement Masons and Concrete FinishersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2051
88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
206k
$57,020
StonemasonsConstruction and Extraction · 47-2022
88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
8k
$57,390
Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment OperatorsConstruction and Extraction · 47-2071
88↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
42k
$53,340
Pile Driver OperatorsConstruction and Extraction · 47-2072
89↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
2k
$73,300
Floor Sanders and FinishersConstruction and Extraction · 47-2043
89↑ saferAI replace? Nah.
AI does 0%AI helps 0%Needs a human 100%
2048–2060+
4k
$50,440