Jobs in accounting, tax, and payroll firms have an average Still needs a human score of 64.0 out of 100 (higher is safer), 10.0 points below the average for all jobs of 74.0 and 32nd of 37 among the sectors (1st is least exposed). The largest job here is accountants and auditors (342,000 workers, 66/100 ↑ safer), and of the jobs more common here than across the economy, sales representatives of services, except advertising, insurance, financial services, and travel is the most exposed (54/100 ↑ safer).
64.0/100↑ safer
15.1%
41.0%
+2.1%
How the work here could shift
The share of workers in this sector whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.
Today
2%
of workers in this sector are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
0%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
96% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
0%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
100% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Show the data
| Year | Largely | Mostly | Partly | A little | Nah |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today (2026) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.9% | 82.9% | 2.2% |
| 2030 | 0.0% | 3.7% | 78.5% | 16.7% | 1.1% |
| 2035 | 33.8% | 42.3% | 22.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| 2040 | 72.7% | 24.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 2045 | 95.9% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 2050 | 98.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 2055 | 99.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 2060 | 99.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
The largest jobs in accounting, tax, and payroll firms
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Accountants and Auditors | 66↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2047 | 341,700 |
| 2 | Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 60↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2046 | 101,900 |
| 3 | Tax Preparers | 58↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2035–2044 | 74,700 |
| 4 | Financial Managers | 67↑ saferAI replace? A little.workers of 3 related jobs | D | 2036–2048 | 61,701 |
| 5 | Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 61↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2047 | 35,500 |
| 6 | Management Analysts | 62↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2046 | 34,000 |
| 7 | Office Clerks, General | 65↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2053 | 32,600 |
| 8 | General and Operations Managers | 72↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2051 | 30,300 |
| 9 | Billing and Posting Clerks | 62↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2047 | 30,200 |
| 10 | Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2042 | 29,000 |
Common jobs here that AI can do most of
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Customer Service Representatives | 51↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2041 | 19,600 |
| 2 | Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2034–2042 | 6,700 |
| 3 | Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2042 | 29,000 |
| 4 | Computer Programmers | 55↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2033–2041 | 1,300 |
| 5 | Medical Records Specialists | 56↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2039–2049 | 7,100 |
| 6 | Tax Preparers | 58↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2035–2044 | 74,700 |
| 7 | Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers | 58↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2033–2042 | 2,400 |
| 8 | Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks | 58↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2035–2045 | 2,300 |
| 9 | Computer Systems Analysts | 59↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2033–2042 | 7,400 |
| 10 | Information Security Analysts | 59↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2033–2043 | 4,500 |
Common jobs here that most need a human
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 2,600 |
| 2 | Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2044–2060+ | 6,000 |
| 3 | Maintenance and Repair Workers, General | 83↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 3,600 |
| 4 | Actors | 80↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2038–2060+ | 5,500 |
| 5 | Printing Press Operators | 77↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2046–2060+ | 1,200 |
| 6 | Chief Executives | 75↑ saferAI replace? A little.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2036–2051 | 2,500 |
| 7 | General and Operations Managers | 72↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2051 | 30,300 |
| 8 | Sales Managers | 72↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2050 | 5,500 |
| 9 | Administrative Services Managers | 72↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2051 | 2,900 |
| 10 | Lawyers | 72↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2049 | 2,100 |
Related sectors: Professional, scientific, and technical services, Law firms, Banking
How this is worked out
- The average weights every job's Still needs a human score by how many people do it in this sector, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' industry employment data. Jobs cover 97.7% of the sector's employment.
- Job scores are national: an accountant in retail scores the same as an accountant anywhere. The sector figure reflects its mix of jobs, not how its employers use AI; the Census figure shows that.