Jobs in government have an average Still needs a human score of 73.5 out of 100 (higher is safer), 0.5 points below the average for all jobs of 74.0 and 21st of 37 among the sectors (1st is least exposed). The largest job here is police and sheriff's patrol officers (661,000 workers, 79/100 ↑ safer), and of the jobs more common here than across the economy, human resources assistants, except payroll and timekeeping is the most exposed (59/100 ↑ safer).
73.5/100↑ safer
2.7%
+0.3%
How the work here could shift
The share of workers in this sector whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.
Today
28%
of workers in this sector are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
5%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
65% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
5%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
93% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Show the data
| Year | Largely | Mostly | Partly | A little | Nah |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today (2026) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 69.3% | 28.3% |
| 2030 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 32.5% | 53.8% | 12.7% |
| 2035 | 14.4% | 24.8% | 32.9% | 23.0% | 5.0% |
| 2040 | 39.5% | 30.0% | 20.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% |
| 2045 | 65.1% | 21.2% | 6.8% | 2.0% | 5.0% |
| 2050 | 78.8% | 13.7% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 5.0% |
| 2055 | 89.8% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 5.0% |
| 2060 | 92.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 5.0% |
The largest jobs in government
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers | 79↑ saferAI replace? A little.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2042–2060+ | 661,400 |
| 2 | Correctional Officers and Jailers | 81↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2042–2060+ | 381,700 |
| 3 | Firefighters | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2042–2060+ | 332,000 |
| 4 | Postal Service Mail Carriers | 81↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2037–2060+ | 316,400 |
| 5 | Office Clerks, General | 65↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2053 | 250,900 |
| 6 | Maintenance and Repair Workers, General | 83↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 191,700 |
| 7 | Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 61↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2047 | 190,900 |
| 8 | Management Analysts | 62↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2046 | 188,800 |
| 9 | Court, Municipal, and License Clerks | 65↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2048 | 183,000 |
| 10 | Registered Nurses | 80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.workers of 5 related jobs | D | 2042–2060+ | 180,100 |
Common jobs here that AI can do most of
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Customer Service Representatives | 51↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2041 | 76,900 |
| 2 | Computer Systems Analysts | 59↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2033–2042 | 40,500 |
| 3 | Human Resources Assistants, Except Payroll and Timekeeping | 59↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2035–2045 | 16,800 |
| 4 | Receptionists and Information Clerks | 60↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2047 | 16,800 |
| 5 | Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 60↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2046 | 97,700 |
| 6 | Procurement Clerks | 61↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2045 | 13,000 |
| 7 | Human Resources Specialists | 61↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2045 | 97,700 |
| 8 | Computer Network Support Specialists | 61↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2034–2045 | 11,500 |
| 9 | Public Relations Specialists | 61↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2045 | 33,200 |
| 10 | Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 61↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2047 | 190,900 |
Common jobs here that most need a human
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highway Maintenance Workers | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2048–2060+ | 154,100 |
| 2 | Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 95,200 |
| 3 | Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2047–2060+ | 15,000 |
| 4 | Construction Laborers | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2048–2060+ | 31,700 |
| 5 | Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 121,400 |
| 6 | Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2048–2060+ | 84,800 |
| 7 | Electrical Power-Line Installers and Repairers | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 15,600 |
| 8 | Firefighters | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2042–2060+ | 332,000 |
| 9 | Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Processing Machine Operators | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2037–2060+ | 101,200 |
| 10 | Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 34,100 |
Related sectors: Education, Elementary and secondary schools, Hospitals
How this is worked out
- The average weights every job's Still needs a human score by how many people do it in this sector, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' industry employment data. Jobs cover 96.8% of the sector's employment.
- Job scores are national: an accountant in retail scores the same as an accountant anywhere. The sector figure reflects its mix of jobs, not how its employers use AI; the Census figure shows that.