Jobs in health care and social assistance have an average Still needs a human score of 76.2 out of 100 (higher is safer), 2.2 points above the average for all jobs of 74.0 and 13th of 37 among the sectors (1st is least exposed). The largest job here is registered nurses (2,931,000 workers, 80/100 ↑ safer), and of the jobs more common here than across the economy, medical records specialists is the most exposed (56/100 ↑ safer).
76.2/100↑ safer
2.1%
24.1%
+9.2%
How the work here could shift
The share of workers in this sector whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.
Today
45%
of workers in this sector are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
5%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
52% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
5%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
92% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Show the data
| Year | Largely | Mostly | Partly | A little | Nah |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today (2026) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 52.6% | 45.4% |
| 2030 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 18.8% | 61.7% | 18.9% |
| 2035 | 8.2% | 16.4% | 33.8% | 36.9% | 4.7% |
| 2040 | 25.4% | 31.7% | 30.7% | 7.7% | 4.6% |
| 2045 | 52.2% | 29.4% | 11.8% | 2.0% | 4.6% |
| 2050 | 70.8% | 21.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 4.6% |
| 2055 | 87.2% | 6.4% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 4.6% |
| 2060 | 92.2% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 4.6% |
The largest jobs in health care and social assistance
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Registered Nurses | 80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.workers of 5 related jobs | D | 2042–2060+ | 2,931,400 |
| 2 | Home Health Aides | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 2,156,500 |
| 3 | Personal Care Aides | 80↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 2,156,500 |
| 4 | Nursing Assistants | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 1,352,700 |
| 5 | Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 62↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2046 | 888,300 |
| 6 | Medical Assistants | 78↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2045–2060+ | 785,300 |
| 7 | Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2042–2060+ | 568,200 |
| 8 | Medical and Health Services Managers | 70↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2050 | 471,600 |
| 9 | Receptionists and Information Clerks | 60↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2047 | 398,200 |
| 10 | Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education | 80↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2036–2060+ | 395,500 |
Common jobs here that AI can do most of
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Customer Service Representatives | 51↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2041 | 166,000 |
| 2 | Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2034–2042 | 46,200 |
| 3 | Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2042 | 35,400 |
| 4 | Medical Records Specialists | 56↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2039–2049 | 125,600 |
| 5 | Computer Systems Analysts | 59↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2033–2042 | 40,000 |
| 6 | Medical Transcriptionists | 60↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2043–2053 | 26,100 |
| 7 | Receptionists and Information Clerks | 60↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2047 | 398,200 |
| 8 | Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 60↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2046 | 99,000 |
| 9 | Interviewers, Except Eligibility and Loan | 61↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2045 | 100,400 |
| 10 | Human Resources Specialists | 61↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2045 | 106,900 |
Common jobs here that most need a human
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2047–2060+ | 223,800 |
| 2 | Orderlies | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 50,100 |
| 3 | Laundry and Dry-Cleaning Workers | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 33,800 |
| 4 | Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 177,500 |
| 5 | Medical Equipment Preparers | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 72,800 |
| 6 | Surgical Technologists | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2042–2060+ | 112,300 |
| 7 | Ophthalmic Medical Technicians | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2042–2060+ | 67,800 |
| 8 | Food Preparation Workers | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 53,100 |
| 9 | Home Health Aides | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 2,156,500 |
| 10 | Psychiatric Aides | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 28,100 |
Related sectors: Hospitals, Nursing homes and assisted living, Dentists' offices
How this is worked out
- The average weights every job's Still needs a human score by how many people do it in this sector, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' industry employment data. Jobs cover 99.2% of the sector's employment.
- Job scores are national: an accountant in retail scores the same as an accountant anywhere. The sector figure reflects its mix of jobs, not how its employers use AI; the Census figure shows that.