Jobs in nursing homes and assisted living have an average Still needs a human score of 80.0 out of 100 (higher is safer), 6.0 points above the average for all jobs of 74.0 and 1st of 37 among the sectors (1st is least exposed). The largest job here is nursing assistants (701,000 workers, 84/100 ↑ safer), and of the jobs more common here than across the economy, medical records specialists is the most exposed (56/100 ↑ safer).
80.0/100↑ safer
1.2%
24.1%
+1.9%
How the work here could shift
The share of workers in this sector whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.
Today
68%
of workers in this sector are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
7%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
36% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
7%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
89% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Show the data
| Year | Largely | Mostly | Partly | A little | Nah |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today (2026) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 30.4% | 68.4% |
| 2030 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 8.4% | 52.3% | 39.1% |
| 2035 | 3.4% | 8.0% | 28.4% | 52.7% | 7.4% |
| 2040 | 12.0% | 30.8% | 36.3% | 14.1% | 6.9% |
| 2045 | 36.0% | 35.4% | 19.7% | 2.0% | 6.9% |
| 2050 | 57.1% | 32.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 6.9% |
| 2055 | 78.5% | 13.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 6.9% |
| 2060 | 89.4% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 6.9% |
The largest jobs in nursing homes and assisted living
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nursing Assistants | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 701,300 |
| 2 | Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2042–2060+ | 234,400 |
| 3 | Registered Nurses | 80↑ saferAI replace? Nah.workers of 5 related jobs | D | 2042–2060+ | 176,500 |
| 4 | Home Health Aides | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 160,350 |
| 5 | Personal Care Aides | 80↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 160,350 |
| 6 | Food Servers, Nonrestaurant | 81↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 139,900 |
| 7 | Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2047–2060+ | 120,600 |
| 8 | Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria | 79↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2044–2060+ | 98,300 |
| 9 | Recreation Workers | 76↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2042–2060+ | 62,100 |
| 10 | Medical and Health Services Managers | 70↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2050 | 47,000 |
Common jobs here that AI can do most of
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Customer Service Representatives | 51↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2041 | 2,900 |
| 2 | Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2034–2042 | 6,700 |
| 3 | Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2042 | 7,100 |
| 4 | Medical Records Specialists | 56↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2039–2049 | 10,700 |
| 5 | Receptionists and Information Clerks | 60↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2047 | 38,600 |
| 6 | Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 60↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2046 | 7,800 |
| 7 | Human Resources Specialists | 61↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2045 | 12,300 |
| 8 | Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 61↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2047 | 11,600 |
| 9 | Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 62↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2046 | 14,500 |
| 10 | Concierges | 64↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2041–2054 | 10,900 |
Common jobs here that most need a human
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dishwashers | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 13,600 |
| 2 | Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2047–2060+ | 120,600 |
| 3 | Laundry and Dry-Cleaning Workers | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 25,800 |
| 4 | Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 20,200 |
| 5 | Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 12,200 |
| 6 | Food Preparation Workers | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 28,200 |
| 7 | Home Health Aides | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 160,350 |
| 8 | Nursing Assistants | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 701,300 |
| 9 | Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2042–2060+ | 234,400 |
| 10 | Maintenance and Repair Workers, General | 83↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 45,300 |
Related sectors: Health care and social assistance, Hospitals, Dentists' offices
How this is worked out
- The average weights every job's Still needs a human score by how many people do it in this sector, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' industry employment data. Jobs cover 99.6% of the sector's employment.
- Job scores are national: an accountant in retail scores the same as an accountant anywhere. The sector figure reflects its mix of jobs, not how its employers use AI; the Census figure shows that.