Jobs in trucking have an average Still needs a human score of 77.1 out of 100 (higher is safer), 3.1 points above the average for all jobs of 74.0 and 11th of 37 among the sectors (1st is least exposed). The largest job here is heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers (890,000 workers, 79/100 ↑ safer), and of the jobs more common here than across the economy, dispatchers, except police, fire, and ambulance is the most exposed (62/100 ↑ safer).
77.1/100↑ safer
2.2%
10.4%
+2.1%
How the work here could shift
The share of workers in this sector whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.
Today
17%
of workers in this sector are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
2%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
41% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
2%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
91% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Show the data
| Year | Largely | Mostly | Partly | A little | Nah |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today (2026) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 80.4% | 17.4% |
| 2030 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 13.1% | 75.4% | 10.6% |
| 2035 | 6.0% | 7.8% | 35.9% | 48.0% | 2.3% |
| 2040 | 13.8% | 34.8% | 39.2% | 10.4% | 1.8% |
| 2045 | 41.0% | 39.0% | 11.9% | 6.2% | 1.8% |
| 2050 | 65.2% | 25.2% | 1.5% | 6.2% | 1.8% |
| 2055 | 87.9% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 1.8% |
| 2060 | 90.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 1.8% |
The largest jobs in trucking
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 79↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2044–2060+ | 890,300 |
| 2 | Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2044–2060+ | 97,300 |
| 3 | Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 56,200 |
| 4 | Light Truck Drivers | 80↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 44,400 |
| 5 | General and Operations Managers | 72↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2051 | 38,100 |
| 6 | Office Clerks, General | 65↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2053 | 36,300 |
| 7 | Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 62↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2046 | 34,500 |
| 8 | Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 20,600 |
| 9 | First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand | 71↑ saferAI replace? A little.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2043–2060+ | 20,050 |
| 10 | Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers | 67↑ saferAI replace? A little.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2036–2049 | 17,700 |
Common jobs here that AI can do most of
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Customer Service Representatives | 51↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2041 | 13,500 |
| 2 | Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2042 | 13,700 |
| 3 | Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 57↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2044 | 2,300 |
| 4 | Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 60↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2046 | 16,100 |
| 5 | Human Resources Specialists | 61↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2045 | 6,600 |
| 6 | Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 61↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2047 | 13,400 |
| 7 | Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 62↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2046 | 34,500 |
| 8 | Billing and Posting Clerks | 62↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2047 | 5,800 |
| 9 | Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks | 63↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2046 | 3,300 |
| 10 | Compliance Officers | 63↑ saferAI replace? A little.workers of 7 related jobs | D | 2035–2046 | 2,702 |
Common jobs here that most need a human
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 20,600 |
| 2 | Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 3,500 |
| 3 | Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 3,300 |
| 4 | Packers and Packagers, Hand | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 1,600 |
| 5 | Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2048–2060+ | 3,200 |
| 6 | Helpers--Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 1,500 |
| 7 | Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 56,200 |
| 8 | Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2044–2060+ | 97,300 |
| 9 | Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except Engines | 83↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 1,600 |
| 10 | Maintenance and Repair Workers, General | 83↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 4,100 |
Related sectors: Transportation and warehousing, Warehousing and storage, Ecommerce and online retail
How this is worked out
- The average weights every job's Still needs a human score by how many people do it in this sector, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' industry employment data. Jobs cover 99.4% of the sector's employment.
- Job scores are national: an accountant in retail scores the same as an accountant anywhere. The sector figure reflects its mix of jobs, not how its employers use AI; the Census figure shows that.