Jobs in ecommerce and online retail have an average Still needs a human score of 77.0 out of 100 (higher is safer), 3.0 points above the average for all jobs of 74.0. The largest job here is stockers and order fillers (2,256,000 workers, 79/100 ↑ safer), and of the jobs more common here than across the economy, customer service representatives is the most exposed (51/100 ↑ safer).
77.0/100↑ safer
10.7%
15.9%
+3.9%
How the work here could shift
The share of workers in this sector whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.
Today
35%
of workers in this sector are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
4%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
40% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
4%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
90% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Show the data
| Year | Largely | Mostly | Partly | A little | Nah |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today (2026) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.7% | 54.4% | 34.9% |
| 2030 | 0.0% | 4.8% | 8.9% | 68.7% | 17.5% |
| 2035 | 7.6% | 6.9% | 33.2% | 48.2% | 4.1% |
| 2040 | 15.5% | 31.3% | 38.7% | 11.0% | 3.5% |
| 2045 | 39.7% | 37.1% | 14.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% |
| 2050 | 63.2% | 26.8% | 1.8% | 4.8% | 3.5% |
| 2055 | 84.9% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% |
| 2060 | 90.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% |
The largest jobs in ecommerce and online retail
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockers and Order Fillers | 79↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2044–2060+ | 2,256,000 |
| 2 | Light Truck Drivers | 80↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 589,700 |
| 3 | Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 544,350 |
| 4 | Customer Service Representatives | 51↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2041 | 436,800 |
| 5 | Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 315,800 |
| 6 | Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 70↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2056 | 265,500 |
| 7 | Packers and Packagers, Hand | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 224,900 |
| 8 | First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand | 71↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2043–2060+ | 58,475 |
| 9 | Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2034–2042 | 49,300 |
| 10 | Couriers and Messengers | 81↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2036–2060+ | 22,300 |
Common jobs here that AI can do most of
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Customer Service Representatives | 51↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2041 | 436,800 |
| 2 | Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2034–2042 | 49,300 |
| 3 | Order Clerks | 59↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2035–2044 | 20,300 |
| 4 | Graphic Designers | 62↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2047 | 8,700 |
| 5 | Marketing Managers | 67↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2048 | 11,400 |
| 6 | Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers | 67↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2049 | 18,900 |
| 7 | Wholesale and Retail Buyers, Except Farm Products | 69↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2049 | 14,267 |
| 8 | Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 70↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2056 | 265,500 |
| 9 | First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand | 71↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2043–2060+ | 58,475 |
| 10 | Stockers and Order Fillers | 79↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2044–2060+ | 2,256,000 |
Common jobs here that most need a human
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 315,800 |
| 2 | Packers and Packagers, Hand | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 224,900 |
| 3 | Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 544,350 |
| 4 | Couriers and Messengers | 81↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2036–2060+ | 22,300 |
| 5 | Light Truck Drivers | 80↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 589,700 |
| 6 | Stockers and Order Fillers | 79↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2044–2060+ | 2,256,000 |
| 7 | First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand | 71↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2043–2060+ | 58,475 |
| 8 | Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 70↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2056 | 265,500 |
| 9 | Wholesale and Retail Buyers, Except Farm Products | 69↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2049 | 14,267 |
| 10 | Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers | 67↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2049 | 18,900 |
Related sectors: Retail trade, Warehousing and storage, Trucking, Call centers and business support, Pharmacies and drugstores, Car dealerships
How this is worked out
- The average weights every job's Still needs a human score by how many people do it in this sector, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' industry employment data.
- Job scores are national: an accountant in retail scores the same as an accountant anywhere. The sector figure reflects its mix of jobs, not how its employers use AI; the Census figure shows that.