Jobs in wholesale trade have an average Still needs a human score of 70.8 out of 100 (higher is safer), 3.2 points below the average for all jobs of 74.0 and 27th of 37 among the sectors (1st is least exposed). The largest job here is sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products (805,000 workers, 57/100 ↑ safer), and of the jobs more common here than across the economy, customer service representatives is the most exposed (51/100 ↑ safer).
70.8/100↑ safer
20.9%
19.0%
+2.1%
How the work here could shift
The share of workers in this sector whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.
Today
23%
of workers in this sector are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
2%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
67% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
2%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
94% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Show the data
| Year | Largely | Mostly | Partly | A little | Nah |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today (2026) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.9% | 56.4% | 22.7% |
| 2030 | 0.0% | 5.6% | 40.0% | 41.4% | 13.1% |
| 2035 | 21.4% | 25.7% | 25.7% | 24.3% | 2.9% |
| 2040 | 45.5% | 25.4% | 19.9% | 6.9% | 2.4% |
| 2045 | 66.5% | 20.3% | 8.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% |
| 2050 | 79.8% | 14.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% |
| 2055 | 90.4% | 5.4% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% |
| 2060 | 94.2% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% |
The largest jobs in wholesale trade
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 57↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2044 | 804,600 |
| 2 | Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2044–2060+ | 400,200 |
| 3 | Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 79↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2044–2060+ | 271,000 |
| 4 | Stockers and Order Fillers | 79↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2044–2060+ | 266,400 |
| 5 | General and Operations Managers | 72↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2051 | 255,300 |
| 6 | Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products | 59↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2034–2044 | 176,700 |
| 7 | Customer Service Representatives | 51↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2041 | 165,100 |
| 8 | Light Truck Drivers | 80↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 146,400 |
| 9 | Sales Managers | 72↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2050 | 133,900 |
| 10 | Office Clerks, General | 65↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2053 | 131,900 |
Common jobs here that AI can do most of
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Customer Service Representatives | 51↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2041 | 165,100 |
| 2 | Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2034–2042 | 67,100 |
| 3 | Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2042 | 41,100 |
| 4 | Web and Digital Interface Designers | 57↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2033–2042 | 6,200 |
| 5 | Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 57↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2044 | 804,600 |
| 6 | Order Clerks | 59↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2035–2044 | 22,400 |
| 7 | Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products | 59↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2034–2044 | 176,700 |
| 8 | Computer Systems Analysts | 59↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2033–2042 | 14,100 |
| 9 | Receptionists and Information Clerks | 60↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2047 | 12,300 |
| 10 | Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 60↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2046 | 101,300 |
Common jobs here that most need a human
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 93,200 |
| 2 | Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 24,000 |
| 3 | Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 21,600 |
| 4 | Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 8,000 |
| 5 | Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 19,300 |
| 6 | Agricultural Equipment Operators | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 8,800 |
| 7 | Packers and Packagers, Hand | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 49,800 |
| 8 | Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2048–2060+ | 7,700 |
| 9 | Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 6,400 |
| 10 | Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 41,000 |
Related sectors: Retail trade, Transportation and warehousing
How this is worked out
- The average weights every job's Still needs a human score by how many people do it in this sector, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' industry employment data. Jobs cover 98.5% of the sector's employment.
- Job scores are national: an accountant in retail scores the same as an accountant anywhere. The sector figure reflects its mix of jobs, not how its employers use AI; the Census figure shows that.