Jobs in retail trade have an average Still needs a human score of 73.4 out of 100 (higher is safer), 0.6 points below the average for all jobs of 74.0 and 22nd of 37 among the sectors (1st is least exposed). The largest job here is retail salespersons (3,525,000 workers, 69/100 ↑ safer), and of the jobs more common here than across the economy, customer service representatives is the most exposed (51/100 ↑ safer).
73.4/100↑ safer
4.5%
15.9%
−0.2%
How the work here could shift
The share of workers in this sector whose job would sit in each band, from today to 2060.
Today
18%
of workers in this sector are in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
0% are in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2045
2%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
60% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
By 2060
2%
of workers in this sector would still be in jobs that mostly need a person (our top band, Nah.)
94% would be in jobs AI could largely do (Largely.)
Each job's score moves towards the bottom band (Largely: AI could largely do the job) by the year it could be largely automated, slowly at first and faster later, as adoption usually goes. Each job is run as ten scenarios across its replacement range, so every figure mixes early and late outcomes. The model stops at 2060. How the timeline works
Will AI replace the job?Largely.Mostly.Partly.A little.Nah.
Show the data
| Year | Largely | Mostly | Partly | A little | Nah |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today (2026) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.5% | 77.9% | 17.5% |
| 2030 | 0.0% | 1.9% | 27.9% | 60.7% | 9.5% |
| 2035 | 15.6% | 24.0% | 32.2% | 26.1% | 2.0% |
| 2040 | 39.9% | 28.2% | 22.9% | 7.1% | 1.8% |
| 2045 | 60.0% | 27.8% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| 2050 | 77.3% | 16.3% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| 2055 | 90.8% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| 2060 | 93.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
The largest jobs in retail trade
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Retail Salespersons | 69↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2054 | 3,525,300 |
| 2 | Cashiers | 74↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2060+ | 2,549,200 |
| 3 | Stockers and Order Fillers | 79↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2044–2060+ | 1,818,600 |
| 4 | First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers | 71↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2052 | 993,900 |
| 5 | General and Operations Managers | 72↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2036–2051 | 441,800 |
| 6 | Customer Service Representatives | 51↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2041 | 409,700 |
| 7 | Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 356,100 |
| 8 | Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2044–2060+ | 352,100 |
| 9 | Pharmacy Technicians | 74↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2041–2060+ | 323,600 |
| 10 | Food Preparation Workers | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 236,400 |
Common jobs here that AI can do most of
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Customer Service Representatives | 51↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2041 | 409,700 |
| 2 | Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2034–2042 | 46,100 |
| 3 | Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 54↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2042 | 122,000 |
| 4 | Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 57↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2034–2044 | 72,800 |
| 5 | Order Clerks | 59↑ saferAI replace? Partly. | D | 2035–2044 | 15,800 |
| 6 | Receptionists and Information Clerks | 60↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2047 | 40,500 |
| 7 | Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 60↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2046 | 103,000 |
| 8 | Human Resources Specialists | 61↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2045 | 28,000 |
| 9 | Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 61↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2047 | 52,400 |
| 10 | Counter and Rental Clerks | 65↑ saferAI replace? A little. | D | 2035–2049 | 89,400 |
Common jobs here that most need a human
| # | Job | Still needs a human | Evidence | Could be largely automated | Workers in the sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators | 88↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 35,300 |
| 2 | Tire Repairers and Changers | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 90,000 |
| 3 | Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment | 87↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 87,900 |
| 4 | Automotive Body and Related Repairers | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2045–2060+ | 27,400 |
| 5 | Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 112,500 |
| 6 | Packers and Packagers, Hand | 86↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 146,000 |
| 7 | Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2046–2060+ | 20,200 |
| 8 | Food Preparation Workers | 85↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2044–2060+ | 236,400 |
| 9 | Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah.workers of 2 related jobs | D | 2044–2060+ | 352,100 |
| 10 | Parking Attendants | 84↑ saferAI replace? Nah. | D | 2043–2060+ | 23,900 |
Related sectors: Ecommerce and online retail, Wholesale trade, Pharmacies and drugstores, Car dealerships
How this is worked out
- The average weights every job's Still needs a human score by how many people do it in this sector, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' industry employment data. Jobs cover 99.4% of the sector's employment.
- Job scores are national: an accountant in retail scores the same as an accountant anywhere. The sector figure reflects its mix of jobs, not how its employers use AI; the Census figure shows that.